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Take or Drop how much chances to get a shot?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Friday, 7 March 2014, at 2:47 p.m.

In Response To: Take or Drop how much chances to get a shot? (konstantin)

Blue leaves an immediate shot with 62, after which white is 15/36 to hit.

If blue doesn't leave a shot or white misses, there are a few rolls that leave a shot, but not many. So I'd say the chances of hitting a shot are not much higher than the 30/(36*36) of the immediate shot.

Point of last take is 7 pips down and white is 16 pips behind. So I'd put the racing chances at somewhere around 10-12 percent. I don't see how the shot equity makes up for the other 10%.

D/P. QF says otherwise, but I don't do QF.

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