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take/ drop calculation

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Thursday, 13 March 2014, at 10:20 a.m.

In Response To: take/ drop calculation (Konstantin)

Here's one way: Grab the relevant entries from an MET:

Drop: 44.51%

Take and lose single: 32.18%

Take and lose gammon: 6.77%

Take and win by doubling out: 78.83%

On average, take and lose will be (42*32.18 + 26*6.77)/68=22.46.

Then the gammon adjusted take point is (44.51 - 22.46) / (78.83 - 22.46) = 39.1%

Then you still have to consider your recube vig: Live cube TP = dead cube TP * [1 - cube efficiency * cash point]. Here, your cash point, assuming opponent will get an efficient automatic recube is simply 100% - 78.83 = 21.17%. I think cube efficiency is unusually low for us at the score, let's say 0.5, then Live cube TP = 39.1% * (1-0.11)= 34.8%, which is greater than 32%, so pass. Note that our gammons are irrelevant in this calculation. At other scores, they would appear in the cash point calculation.

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