BGonline.org Forums

Im still waiting for some input

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Friday, 14 March 2014, at 11:43 a.m.

In Response To: Im still waiting for some input (Mr Majestyk)

Regarding your analysis in the original thread: I just don't get it. Would you mind elaborating?

Our raw TP is 12.5/38, around 33%. I suppose this is risk/(risk+gain). I can see the 12.5, but not the 38. I'd have divided 12.3/56.6, around 26%.

The oppositions basic gammons are 22% plus 22%*(7/36) = 26.5 @ 0.5 I think we can win 8% gammons @ 0.5, with our net gammons against being around 9%. Our adjusted TP is approximately 36%. I suppose that's because 36% = (33% + 9%) * (1-1/7). Are there scores where you would use a value different from 1/7?

33.5% is not enough to take. With my raw TP I would get an adjusted TP of (26 + 9) * 6/7 = 30% and a big take.

Messages In This Thread

• Im still waiting for some input
  konstantin -- Thursday, 13 March 2014, at 8:53 a.m.
  • Im still waiting for some input
    Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 13 March 2014, at 10:18 a.m.
    • Im still waiting for some input
      konstantin -- Thursday, 13 March 2014, at 12:51 p.m.
      • Im still waiting for some input
        Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 13 March 2014, at 2:11 p.m.
        • Im still waiting for some input
          Konstantin -- Thursday, 13 March 2014, at 6:06 p.m.
          • Im still waiting for some input
            Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 13 March 2014, at 9:34 p.m.
            • Im still waiting for some input
              John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 13 March 2014, at 11:21 p.m.
              • Im still waiting for some input
                Mr Majestyk -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 12:01 a.m.
                • Im still waiting for some input
                  John O'Hagan -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 2:15 a.m.
    • Im still waiting for some input
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 13 March 2014, at 3:00 p.m.
      • Im still waiting for some input
        Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 13 March 2014, at 4:17 p.m.
    • Im still waiting for some input
      Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 11:43 a.m.
      • Im still waiting for some input
        Mr Majestyk -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 3:10 p.m.
        • Im still waiting for some input
          Maik Stiebler -- Saturday, 15 March 2014, at 7:55 a.m.
  • OTB calculations accuracy?
    mandm1951 -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 2:23 p.m.
    • OTB calculations accuracy?
      Stick -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 2:54 p.m.