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64S61P52 and 64S61P53
Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 15 March 2014, at 12:23 a.m.
In Response To: 64S61Pxx — All 21 Rolls (Nack Ballard)
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 160Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 164
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=bECAdDbbeAA:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10 64S61P52
[U Z33 S37 W91] "<=5
1. Rollout^{1} Bar/20 24/22 eq: 0.184
Player:
Opponent:45.87% (G:11.64% B:0.51%)
54.13% (G:15.84% B:0.73%)Conf.: ± 0.007 (0.191...0.176)  [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 14 minutes2. Rollout^{1} Bar/23 13/8 eq: 0.217 (0.033)
Player:
Opponent:44.96% (G:12.86% B:0.54%)
55.04% (G:16.71% B:0.79%)Conf.: ± 0.007 (0.224...0.210)  [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes3. Rollout^{1} Bar/20 13/11 eq: 0.220 (0.037)
Player:
Opponent:44.97% (G:12.28% B:0.56%)
55.03% (G:16.83% B:1.04%)Conf.: ± 0.008 (0.228...0.212)  [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 19 minutes4. Rollout^{1} Bar/20 6/4 eq: 0.275 (0.091)
Player:
Opponent:44.41% (G:11.57% B:0.55%)
55.59% (G:18.67% B:1.23%)Conf.: ± 0.009 (0.284...0.266)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11365963
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 160Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 164
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=bECAdDbbeAA:0:0:1:35:0:0:3:0:10 64S61P53
[Z U4 S65 w78] "<=12*5
1. Rollout^{1} Bar/22 13/8 eq: 0.175
Player:
Opponent:45.78% (G:12.93% B:0.60%)
54.22% (G:15.75% B:0.72%)Conf.: ± 0.005 (0.180...0.170)  [85.5%]
Duration: 5 hours 04 minutes2. Rollout^{1} Bar/20 24/21 eq: 0.179 (0.004)
Player:
Opponent:45.94% (G:11.30% B:0.51%)
54.06% (G:15.80% B:0.72%)Conf.: ± 0.005 (0.183...0.174)  [14.5%]
Duration: 5 hours 16 minutes3. Rollout^{2} Bar/20 13/10 eq: 0.240 (0.065)
Player:
Opponent:44.67% (G:12.19% B:0.58%)
55.33% (G:17.02% B:1.07%)Conf.: ± 0.008 (0.248...0.232)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes4. Rollout^{2} Bar/22 9/4 eq: 0.253 (0.078)
Player:
Opponent:44.22% (G:11.84% B:0.53%)
55.78% (G:17.10% B:0.85%)Conf.: ± 0.008 (0.261...0.245)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes^{1} 12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58284244
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58284244
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerMike alerted me to the existence of David's 64S61Pxx data, but I had already finished the 52 rollout and was well into the 53 rollout by then. (Note to self: Keep up!) I halted the 53 at the next 1k unit and am now posting both. [You are viewing them side by side if your window is wide enough.]
Rollout results for these two positions are summarized below:
........64S61P52
................[U Z34 S45] "<=5 (table)
................[U Z33 S37 W91] "<=5 (above, left)
................[U Z41 S61] "^1 (post)........64S61P53
................[Z U5] "<=25 (table)
................[Z U4 S65 w78] "<=12*5 (above, right)[By the way, for early game positions I'm pretty sure that a 3ply 5k rollout is more reliable than a 4ply 1k rollout due to the latter's high variance.]
Let's compare Z (reverse split  enter deep and come down to the 8pt) in the lefthand position with Z in the righthand position. It is clearly more satisfying to have the leading back checker on the 22pt (connected to a point in the outfield) than on the 23pt. One manifestation of this benefit is that if White does "nothing," Blue's followup rolls of 66 64 51 will play better. Taking all data into account, the U/Z swing is about .04.
........Nactation tutorial
........Explanation of nacbracsNack

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