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64S-61P-52 and 64S-61P-53

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 15 March 2014, at 12:23 a.m.

In Response To: 64S-61P-xx All 21 Rolls (Nack Ballard)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-CA--dD---bbe----AA:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10

64S-61P-52
[U Z33 S37 W91] "<=5


1.Rollout1Bar/20 24/22eq: -0.184
Player:
Opponent:
45.87% (G:11.64% B:0.51%)
54.13% (G:15.84% B:0.73%)
Conf.: 0.007 (-0.191...-0.176) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/8eq: -0.217 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
44.96% (G:12.86% B:0.54%)
55.04% (G:16.71% B:0.79%)
Conf.: 0.007 (-0.224...-0.210) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/20 13/11eq: -0.220 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
44.97% (G:12.28% B:0.56%)
55.03% (G:16.83% B:1.04%)
Conf.: 0.008 (-0.228...-0.212) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 19 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/20 6/4eq: -0.275 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:
44.41% (G:11.57% B:0.55%)
55.59% (G:18.67% B:1.23%)
Conf.: 0.009 (-0.284...-0.266) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11365963
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-CA--dD---bbe----AA:0:0:1:35:0:0:3:0:10

64S-61P-53
[Z U4 S65 w78] "<=12*5


1.Rollout1Bar/22 13/8eq: -0.175
Player:
Opponent:
45.78% (G:12.93% B:0.60%)
54.22% (G:15.75% B:0.72%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.180...-0.170) - [85.5%]
Duration: 5 hours 04 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 24/21eq: -0.179 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
45.94% (G:11.30% B:0.51%)
54.06% (G:15.80% B:0.72%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.183...-0.174) - [14.5%]
Duration: 5 hours 16 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/20 13/10eq: -0.240 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
44.67% (G:12.19% B:0.58%)
55.33% (G:17.02% B:1.07%)
Conf.: 0.008 (-0.248...-0.232) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
4.Rollout2Bar/22 9/4eq: -0.253 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
44.22% (G:11.84% B:0.53%)
55.78% (G:17.10% B:0.85%)
Conf.: 0.008 (-0.261...-0.245) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
1 12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58284244
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58284244
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Mike alerted me to the existence of David's 64S-61P-xx data, but I had already finished the -52 rollout and was well into the -53 rollout by then. (Note to self: Keep up!) I halted the -53 at the next 1k unit and am now posting both. [You are viewing them side by side if your window is wide enough.]

Rollout results for these two positions are summarized below:

........64S-61P-52
................[U Z34 S45] "<=5 (table)
................[U Z33 S37 W91] "<=5 (above, left)
................[U Z41 S61] "^1 (post)

........64S-61P-53
................[Z U5] "<=25 (table)
................[Z U4 S65 w78] "<=12*5 (above, right)

[By the way, for early game positions I'm pretty sure that a 3-ply 5k rollout is more reliable than a 4-ply 1k rollout due to the latter's high variance.]

Let's compare Z (reverse split -- enter deep and come down to the 8pt) in the lefthand position with Z in the righthand position. It is clearly more satisfying to have the leading back checker on the 22pt (connected to a point in the outfield) than on the 23pt. One manifestation of this benefit is that if White does "nothing," Blue's follow-up rolls of 66 64 51 will play better. Taking all data into account, the U/Z swing is about .04.

........Nactation tutorial
........Explanation of nacbracs

Nack

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