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The Donkey Corner #1 - Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 15 March 2014, at 2:19 p.m.

In Response To: The Donkey Corner #1 (Stick)

I knew this was a pass but I thought it to be a small one, under .040. The racing lead alone in conjunction with the 9pt is what did it for me. Even though XG's checkers on the ace point hurt his timing some I didn't expect it to be enough to swing this to a take.

People mentioned the state of my offensive position which is a just question. It will be at least a turn before XG could take advantage of that and by then it should be squared away. I wasn't so worried about putting my offense together. It could be better, of course, but a very minor drawback in my opinion.

My take point is slightly elevated though I'm not sure to the extent it was suggested in this thread. Also, my opponent's gammons are worth a smidge more. Very minor net difference but when we're talking about a small bit of equity to begin with everything counts.

The real question is, which some of you have mentioned but nobody came out and expressed an opinion, is should Stick take against XG? I was comfortable taking assuming it was the small error I thought it was in the first paragraph. I wouldn't have been so comfy if I had known how big of an AtS pass it was.

Assuming ~3 PR difference or 100 elo between myself and XG we can input it into GNU using the Jacobs100 staggered match equity table. The results are posted below the XG AtS rollout. Result, very clear take. A normal score rollout follows that.

AtS Rollout





White is Donkey Corner

score: 2
pip: 137
7 point match
pip: 111
score: 0

Blue is XG Roller+
XGID=-----AEACA--cB--bcBcb---b-:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.93% (G:2.91% B:0.14%) 78.19% (G:2.75% B:0.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.07% (G:1.57% B:0.04%) 21.81% (G:1.72% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities +0.574 +1.166
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.962 (-0.038)0.006 (+0.957..+0.968)
Double/Take:+1.069 (+0.069)0.010 (+1.059..+1.079)
xg Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99542595
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 16 minutes 10 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

AtS GNU staggered MET rollout

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.566(Money: +0.567)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.925
2.Double, pass +1.000 +0.075
3.No double +0.864 -0.061
Proper cube action:Double, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.7780.0250.001-0.2220.0150.001 +0.566 +0.864
Standard error0.0020.0020.000-0.0020.0010.000 0.004 0.010
Player gnubg owns 2-cube0.7810.0240.001-0.2190.0150.001 +1.043 +0.925
Standard error0.0020.0020.000-0.0020.0010.000 0.009 0.010
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
325 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 704951501 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Money rollout

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.92% (G:2.82% B:0.12%) 77.98% (G:2.76% B:0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.08% (G:1.68% B:0.05%) 22.02% (G:1.68% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities +0.570 +1.142
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.942 (-0.058)0.006 (+0.936..+0.949)
Double/Take:+1.017 (+0.017)0.007 (+1.010..+1.024)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99771520
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 38 minutes 41 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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