21$-42H-21X-31U-41-d

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162

1 point match

pip: 181
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a--aAC-C--AdDa--c-e---AB-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:1:10

Blue to play 41

Rollout¹

8/4* 6/5

eq: +0.074

Player:
Opponent:

53.72% (G:17.09% B:2.70%)
46.28% (G:18.91% B:3.47%)

Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.073...+0.075) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 10 minutes

Rollout¹

8/4* 5/4

eq: +0.072 (-0.003)

Player:
Opponent:

53.58% (G:18.90% B:3.07%)
46.42% (G:16.05% B:2.56%)

Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.071...+0.073) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 16 minutes

Rollout²

24/20 6/5

eq: +0.033 (-0.042)

Player:
Opponent:

51.63% (G:14.75% B:2.05%)
48.37% (G:18.31% B:2.37%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.029...+0.036) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 57 seconds

¹ 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 55144155
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 55144155
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013-Feb-09
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
MET: Kazaross XG2
21$-42H-21X-31U-41-d-tm.xgp
d[A a3 E42] "<=62*5
d[a A8 E50] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Hit loose on the 4pt, and then choose between covering and making the 5pt. I became interested in this sort of position early last year, and soon thereafter stumbled upon the principle so nicely elucidated by Nack. I have been looking for exceptions (as well as positions that conform) ever since.

If you have any rollouts of positions where the same issues are at stake, please post them here and/or send me your files. Either way, I’ll credit you and add them to the RolloutSummary spreadsheet that I distribute periodically. Thanks.

The guideline is simple: don’t strip your 6pt and simulateously hit loose on the 4pt. Scanning through the current edition of the RolloutSummary, I find only one or two exceptions: a couple of DMP positions that are tied, one late middle-game setup that does not really qualify, and one with a lousy 62$ opening misplayed for money (62$-32S-11). I am posting one of the DMP rollouts here.

Nactation Correction: The nacbracs for the third position in Nack’s post should be:

64S-61P-52U-51H-44P-21 [P I11] "&e.

That’s the diagram that immediately follows his signature. When both dice are played within the inner board, the correct Nactation family is I (Inside). The A (Attack) family is used when only one die is played within the inner board, while the other die jumps over the bar to get into the inner board. The A family is properly used in the final diagram of Nack’s post.

Mike

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