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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 18 March 2014, at 7:30 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action? (John O'Hagan)

The take looks clear so it's only the redouble that's in question. Both sides win about the same number of g's and the 2-cube gv's are about .6 for both players. Recubing lowers the gv's to around .4/.2 for the trailer/leader so that's one good reason to spin it. Reason 2 is that the cube vig is minimal for the leader ATS since the trailer's tp on anything but a last roll position is ~11%. Thirdly, White has 21 good rolls here and many of these are mkt losers so there's quite a bit of volatility in this position. The other 15 are pretty bad though as they leave a single or double direct shot. So it went R/T and the RO agrees.

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 106
7 point match
pip: 119
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=-aaA-ADACB-B----Aaacabcb--:1:1:1:00:1:2:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.27% (G:14.11% B:0.89%) 64.82% (G:13.65% B:0.97%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.73% (G:15.00% B:0.65%) 35.18% (G:14.56% B:0.70%)
Cubeless Equities +0.276 +0.743
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.574 (-0.108)±0.008 (+0.565..+0.582)
Redouble/Take:+0.682±0.012 (+0.670..+0.693)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.318)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 15 minutes 58 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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