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BGonline.org Forums
DQFTC: Safe or take chances now? *RollOut*
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: DQFTC: Safe or take chances now? *RollOut* (leobueno)
Date: Wednesday, 19 March 2014, at 2:42 a.m.
Yes, pay now, by a mile.
Also, if Gnubg 2-ply is right, White will not be breaking his board with anything after either play, unless 3-3 or 2-2 is blocked, with which White will still break his anchor — White breaks the anchor with anything but 2-1.
You'd have a closer decision if you still had the 4 point, which would let you play 3-2 and 3-1, and pick and pass with more safety with 6-1. But it would still be right to pay now:
White 86
Blue 61 Position ID: 224DAAN7N4MBAA Match ID: QYkOAAAAAAAE Alert: doubtful move ( -0.035)
# Ply Move Equity 1 R 11/8 11/6 +0.1881
0.6100 0.0049 0.0000 - 0.3900 0.0109 0.0002 +0.2138 +0.1881 0.0005 0.0003 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0002 0.0000 0.0010 0.0009 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1297 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 705210639 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] • 2 R 6/3 6/1 +0.1532 ( -0.0349)
0.6368 0.0069 0.0000 - 0.3632 0.0290 0.0006 +0.2509 +0.1532 0.0007 0.0003 0.0000 - 0.0007 0.0004 0.0001 0.0015 0.0025 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 705210639 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 3 0 11/3 -0.2309 ( -0.4190) 0.4792 0.0168 0.0000 - 0.5208 0.0288 0.0002 But notice that in this altered position, the DMP play is pay later, unlike the original position:
DMP
White 86
Blue 61 Position ID: 224DAAN7N4MBAA Match ID: QYkuAAAAAAAE
# Ply Move Equity • 1 R 6/3 6/1 +0.2717
0.6359 0.0494 0.0000 - 0.3641 0.0470 0.0002 +0.2717 +0.2717 0.0031 0.0244 0.0002 - 0.0031 0.0150 0.0001 0.0062 0.0062 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 46 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 705210639 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 11/8 11/6 +0.2204 ( -0.0514)
0.6102 0.0402 0.0000 - 0.3898 0.0522 0.0001 +0.2204 +0.2204 0.0030 0.0199 0.0000 - 0.0030 0.0233 0.0001 0.0060 0.0060 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 46 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 705210639 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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