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DQFTC: Safe or take chances now? *RollOut*

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 19 March 2014, at 2:42 a.m.

In Response To: DQFTC: Safe or take chances now? *RollOut* (leobueno)

Yes, pay now, by a mile.

Also, if Gnubg 2-ply is right, White will not be breaking his board with anything after either play, unless 3-3 or 2-2 is blocked, with which White will still break his anchor White breaks the anchor with anything but 2-1.

You'd have a closer decision if you still had the 4 point, which would let you play 3-2 and 3-1, and pick and pass with more safety with 6-1. But it would still be right to pay now:

White86

2X2X2X3X2X2X ' ' ' ' ' '

2O4O3O2O2X2O ' ' ' '2O '
Blue61
Position ID: 224DAAN7N4MBAA Match ID: QYkOAAAAAAAE

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.035)
# Ply Move Equity
1 R 11/8 11/6 +0.1881
0.61000.00490.0000-0.39000.01090.0002 +0.2138 +0.1881
0.00050.00030.0000-0.00050.00020.0000 0.0010 0.0009
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1297 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 705210639 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 6/3 6/1 +0.1532 ( -0.0349)
0.63680.00690.0000-0.36320.02900.0006 +0.2509 +0.1532
0.00070.00030.0000-0.00070.00040.0001 0.0015 0.0025
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 705210639 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 0 11/3 -0.2309 ( -0.4190)
0.4792 0.0168 0.0000 - 0.5208 0.0288 0.0002

But notice that in this altered position, the DMP play is pay later, unlike the original position:

DMP

White86

2X2X2X3X2X2X ' ' ' ' ' '

2O4O3O2O2X2O ' ' ' '2O '
Blue61
Position ID: 224DAAN7N4MBAA Match ID: QYkuAAAAAAAE

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 6/3 6/1 +0.2717
0.63590.04940.0000-0.36410.04700.0002 +0.2717 +0.2717
0.00310.02440.0002-0.00310.01500.0001 0.0062 0.0062
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
46 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 705210639 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 11/8 11/6 +0.2204 ( -0.0514)
0.61020.04020.0000-0.38980.05220.0001 +0.2204 +0.2204
0.00300.01990.0000-0.00300.02330.0001 0.0060 0.0060
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
46 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 705210639 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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