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Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 21 March 2014, at 5:35 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action? (John O'Hagan)

I found this to be a difficult decision. There are quite a few good and bad sequences here and a handful of really double-edged ones. Good include the 5 numbers that hit and the 9 more that make the 3-point. Bad are the non-escaping 6s which force you to bury a checker to the deuce. Double-edged are the 10 numbers that run one checker off the 22-point. These will either be good or bad depending on whether Black next roll.

Redoubling also has the effect of reducing both sides gammon values because of the two points of overage. Gammons favor White by quite a bit so that's a good reason not to cube.

OTB, I redoubled but the RO shows that to be a small error.

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 128
7 point match
pip: 110
score: 1

is Player 1
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.06% (G:38.68% B:1.72%) 61.10% (G:38.97% B:2.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.94% (G:8.55% B:0.43%) 38.90% (G:7.83% B:0.57%)
Cubeless Equities +0.569 +0.903
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.6550.008 (+0.647..+0.663)
Redouble/Take:+0.618 (-0.037)0.014 (+0.603..+0.632)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.345)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 26 minutes 05 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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