Paul Weaver emailed me and he started these rollouts. I finished them. As he pointed out, the correct play may depend on the location of the cube and it was a small double before the roll as the first rollout shows.
| | White is Player 2
score: 6 pip: 76 | 15 point match | pip: 128 score: 6
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=--AaBBBBBB---------bbddbB-:0:0:1:00:6:6:0:15:10 |
Blue on roll, cube action? |
Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
Player Winning Chances: | 65.12% (G:7.94% B:0.26%) | 66.05% (G:8.25% B:0.31%) |
Opponent Winning Chances: | 34.88% (G:11.67% B:1.18%) | 33.95% (G:11.02% B:1.24%) |
Cubeless Equities | +0.255 | +0.561 |
Cubeful Equities |
No double: | +0.422 (-0.016) | ±0.005 (+0.417..+0.427) |
Double/Take: | +0.438 | ±0.008 (+0.430..+0.446) |
Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.562) |
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Best Cube action: Double / Take |
Rollout details |
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Duration: 41 minutes 01 second |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Centered Cube
| | White is Player 2
score: 6 pip: 76 | 15 point match | pip: 128 score: 6
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=--AaBBBBBB---------bbddbB-:0:0:1:12:6:6:0:15:10 |
Blue to play 12 |
1. | Rollout1 | 9/6 | eq: +0.100 |
| Player: Opponent: | 53.44% (G:6.61% B:0.23%) 46.56% (G:20.95% B:2.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.090...+0.110) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 21 seconds |
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2. | Rollout1 | 8/7 8/6 | eq: +0.068 (-0.032) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.44% (G:6.15% B:0.22%) 49.56% (G:12.20% B:0.81%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.059...+0.077) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 28 seconds |
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3. | Rollout1 | 8/5 | eq: +0.035 (-0.065) |
| Player: Opponent: | 52.04% (G:6.26% B:0.21%) 47.96% (G:21.65% B:2.32%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.025...+0.046) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 05 seconds |
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4. | Rollout1 | 9/8 9/7 | eq: +0.020 (-0.080) |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.28% (G:6.03% B:0.21%) 50.72% (G:13.27% B:0.91%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.010...+0.029) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 38 seconds |
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5. | Rollout1 | 5/2 | eq: +0.007 (-0.093) |
| Player: Opponent: | 52.08% (G:7.43% B:0.26%) 47.92% (G:20.82% B:2.18%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.003...+0.018) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 43 seconds |
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6. | Rollout1 | 4/2 4/3* | eq: -0.070 (-0.170) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.79% (G:6.70% B:0.23%) 49.21% (G:19.31% B:1.93%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.083...-0.057) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 24 seconds |
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7. | Rollout1 | 4/1 | eq: -0.181 (-0.281) |
| Player: Opponent: | 47.43% (G:6.51% B:0.21%) 52.57% (G:20.99% B:1.88%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.194...-0.167) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds |
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1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Cube Turned
| | White is Player 2
score: 6 pip: 76 | 15 point match | pip: 128 score: 6
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=--AaBBBBBB---------bbddbB-:1:-1:1:12:6:6:0:15:10 |
Blue to play 12 |
1. | Rollout1 | 8/7 8/6 | eq: -0.145 |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.77% (G:6.46% B:0.25%) 49.23% (G:12.18% B:0.90%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.148...-0.141) - [100.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 35 seconds |
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2. | Rollout1 | 9/6 | eq: -0.155 (-0.010) |
| Player: Opponent: | 53.71% (G:6.80% B:0.25%) 46.29% (G:20.88% B:2.31%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.159...-0.151) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 26 seconds |
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3. | Rollout2 | 9/8 9/7 | eq: -0.177 (-0.032) |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.51% (G:6.33% B:0.25%) 50.49% (G:13.16% B:0.97%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.183...-0.171) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds |
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4. | Rollout2 | 4/2 4/3* | eq: -0.204 (-0.060) |
| Player: Opponent: | 51.25% (G:6.87% B:0.27%) 48.75% (G:19.00% B:2.59%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.214...-0.195) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 04 seconds |
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5. | Rollout2 | 8/5 | eq: -0.207 (-0.063) |
| Player: Opponent: | 52.29% (G:6.54% B:0.23%) 47.71% (G:21.38% B:2.59%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.214...-0.201) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 43 seconds |
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1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2