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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 24 March 2014, at 2:03 a.m.

In Response To: Help! I need somebody.... (gudgen)

Paul Weaver emailed me and he started these rollouts. I finished them. As he pointed out, the correct play may depend on the location of the cube and it was a small double before the roll as the first rollout shows.





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 76
15 point match
pip: 128
score: 6

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AaBBBBBB---------bbddbB-:0:0:1:00:6:6:0:15:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.12% (G:7.94% B:0.26%) 66.05% (G:8.25% B:0.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.88% (G:11.67% B:1.18%) 33.95% (G:11.02% B:1.24%)
Cubeless Equities +0.255 +0.561
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.422 (-0.016)0.005 (+0.417..+0.427)
Double/Take:+0.4380.008 (+0.430..+0.446)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.562)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 41 minutes 01 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


Centered Cube





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 76
15 point match
pip: 128
score: 6

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AaBBBBBB---------bbddbB-:0:0:1:12:6:6:0:15:10
Blue to play 12

1.Rollout19/6eq: +0.100
Player:
Opponent:
53.44% (G:6.61% B:0.23%)
46.56% (G:20.95% B:2.06%)
Conf.: 0.010 (+0.090...+0.110) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 21 seconds
2.Rollout18/7 8/6eq: +0.068 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
50.44% (G:6.15% B:0.22%)
49.56% (G:12.20% B:0.81%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+0.059...+0.077) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 28 seconds
3.Rollout18/5eq: +0.035 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
52.04% (G:6.26% B:0.21%)
47.96% (G:21.65% B:2.32%)
Conf.: 0.010 (+0.025...+0.046) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 05 seconds
4.Rollout19/8 9/7eq: +0.020 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
49.28% (G:6.03% B:0.21%)
50.72% (G:13.27% B:0.91%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+0.010...+0.029) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 38 seconds
5.Rollout15/2eq: +0.007 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
52.08% (G:7.43% B:0.26%)
47.92% (G:20.82% B:2.18%)
Conf.: 0.011 (-0.003...+0.018) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 43 seconds
6.Rollout14/2 4/3* eq: -0.070 (-0.170)
Player:
Opponent:
50.79% (G:6.70% B:0.23%)
49.21% (G:19.31% B:1.93%)
Conf.: 0.013 (-0.083...-0.057) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 24 seconds
7.Rollout14/1eq: -0.181 (-0.281)
Player:
Opponent:
47.43% (G:6.51% B:0.21%)
52.57% (G:20.99% B:1.88%)
Conf.: 0.013 (-0.194...-0.167) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


Cube Turned





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 76
15 point match
pip: 128
score: 6

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AaBBBBBB---------bbddbB-:1:-1:1:12:6:6:0:15:10
Blue to play 12

1.Rollout18/7 8/6eq: -0.145
Player:
Opponent:
50.77% (G:6.46% B:0.25%)
49.23% (G:12.18% B:0.90%)
Conf.: 0.003 (-0.148...-0.141) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout19/6eq: -0.155 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
53.71% (G:6.80% B:0.25%)
46.29% (G:20.88% B:2.31%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-0.159...-0.151) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 26 seconds
3.Rollout29/8 9/7eq: -0.177 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
49.51% (G:6.33% B:0.25%)
50.49% (G:13.16% B:0.97%)
Conf.: 0.006 (-0.183...-0.171) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds
4.Rollout24/2 4/3* eq: -0.204 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
51.25% (G:6.87% B:0.27%)
48.75% (G:19.00% B:2.59%)
Conf.: 0.010 (-0.214...-0.195) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 04 seconds
5.Rollout28/5eq: -0.207 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
52.29% (G:6.54% B:0.23%)
47.71% (G:21.38% B:2.59%)
Conf.: 0.007 (-0.214...-0.201) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 43 seconds
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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