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The Donkey Corner #4 - Rollout + Analysis

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 26 March 2014, at 12:48 a.m.

In Response To: The Donkey Corner #4 (Stick)

We're looking to keep contact and make it count when we hit a shot. That's why making the ace point is no good. The upside is it leaves no immediate shots but now the opponent can play rather freely since if he is hit it will probably be a couple of turns before we're able to cover our inner board blot. On top of that now our points are made all out of order making our containment that much weaker.

It's worth the risk to pay now in order to keep our board and create future turn flexibility when missed. Playing both down from the midpoint is so bad because it leaves two reachable blots to be picked up. The other plays only leave one blot that can be touched so we can recover if we are hit.

When we aren't hit often the opponent will have to cough up a blot on his own. Hitting that with our board in tact is now a huge coup whereas if we break the board and play safe it hardly makes a dent.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 112
7 point match
pip: 147
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout118/13eq: -0.459
32.58% (G:7.24% B:0.22%)
67.42% (G:23.17% B:0.76%)
Conf.: 0.010 (-0.469...-0.449) - [98.6%]
Duration: 4 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout113/8eq: -0.477 (-0.017)
34.23% (G:7.47% B:0.30%)
65.77% (G:27.51% B:1.25%)
Conf.: 0.012 (-0.488...-0.465) - [1.4%]
Duration: 4 minutes 51 seconds
3.Rollout14/1 3/1eq: -0.534 (-0.074)
31.73% (G:7.59% B:0.21%)
68.27% (G:26.85% B:1.41%)
Conf.: 0.010 (-0.544...-0.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 27 seconds
4.Rollout113/11 13/10eq: -0.605 (-0.145)
32.16% (G:6.20% B:0.30%)
67.84% (G:32.56% B:1.83%)
Conf.: 0.013 (-0.617...-0.592) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 40 seconds
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60033830
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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