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BGonline.org Forums
The Donkey Corner #4 - Rollout + Analysis
Posted By: Stick In Response To: The Donkey Corner #4 (Stick)
Date: Wednesday, 26 March 2014, at 12:48 a.m.
We're looking to keep contact and make it count when we hit a shot. That's why making the ace point is no good. The upside is it leaves no immediate shots but now the opponent can play rather freely since if he is hit it will probably be a couple of turns before we're able to cover our inner board blot. On top of that now our points are made all out of order making our containment that much weaker.
It's worth the risk to pay now in order to keep our board and create future turn flexibility when missed. Playing both down from the midpoint is so bad because it leaves two reachable blots to be picked up. The other plays only leave one blot that can be touched so we can recover if we are hit.
When we aren't hit often the opponent will have to cough up a blot on his own. Hitting that with our board in tact is now a huge coup whereas if we break the board and play safe it hardly makes a dent.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 1127 point match pip: 147
score: 2
Blue is Player 1XGID=---CBBB--c--bB----BbbbbBb-:1:1:1:32:2:0:0:7:10 Blue to play 32
1. Rollout1 18/13 eq: -0.459
Player:
Opponent:32.58% (G:7.24% B:0.22%)
67.42% (G:23.17% B:0.76%)Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.469...-0.449) - [98.6%]
Duration: 4 minutes 49 seconds2. Rollout1 13/8 eq: -0.477 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:34.23% (G:7.47% B:0.30%)
65.77% (G:27.51% B:1.25%)Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.488...-0.465) - [1.4%]
Duration: 4 minutes 51 seconds3. Rollout1 4/1 3/1 eq: -0.534 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:31.73% (G:7.59% B:0.21%)
68.27% (G:26.85% B:1.41%)Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.544...-0.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 27 seconds4. Rollout1 13/11 13/10 eq: -0.605 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:32.16% (G:6.20% B:0.30%)
67.84% (G:32.56% B:1.83%)Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.617...-0.592) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 40 seconds1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60033830
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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