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Advanced Backgammon #62 -- Rollouts and Variants
Posted By: Igor In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #62 (Igor)
Date: Monday, 31 March 2014, at 3:27 p.m.
I'm back after a not so short hiatus, so let's get this rolling again.
This is actually a drop. White desperately needs a six otherwise her front position is going to collapse. Look at how fives and fours would play, for example. White's position is disconnected and blue controls the outfield. This is usually a sign of big trouble. Good position to keep in mind.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 132Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 167
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-aaa-CBBB---A-A-bb-bBcBba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 71.79% (G:24.54% B:1.46%) 72.52% (G:26.25% B:1.70%) Opponent Winning Chances: 28.21% (G:9.55% B:0.30%) 27.48% (G:9.46% B:0.25%) Cubeless Equities +0.597 +1.266 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.850 (-0.150) ±0.013 (+0.837..+0.862) Double/Take: +1.079 (+0.079) ±0.020 (+1.059..+1.099) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58457205
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 5 minutes 53 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Now to the variants. Stepping up with one back checker is still no good.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 131Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 167
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-aa-aCBBB---A-A-bb-bBcBba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 72.15% (G:24.16% B:1.36%) 72.86% (G:26.21% B:1.63%) Opponent Winning Chances: 27.85% (G:9.17% B:0.29%) 27.14% (G:9.37% B:0.27%) Cubeless Equities +0.604 +1.278 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.841 (-0.159) ±0.014 (+0.827..+0.855) Double/Take: +1.086 (+0.086) ±0.023 (+1.063..+1.109) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58457205
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 6 minutes 13 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Step up with one more checker and white can squeeze out a take since two back checkers now see light and white has a chance to anchor on either 22 or 21 points both of which are not yet blocked by blue prime.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 130Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 167
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-a-aaCBBB---A-A-bb-bBcBba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 70.29% (G:23.74% B:1.36%) 70.85% (G:25.78% B:1.74%) Opponent Winning Chances: 29.71% (G:10.25% B:0.33%) 29.15% (G:10.57% B:0.28%) Cubeless Equities +0.551 +1.167 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.767 (-0.191) ±0.014 (+0.753..+0.780) Double/Take: +0.958 ±0.024 (+0.934..+0.982) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.042) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58457205
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 6 minutes 29 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Deep anchor is not much help.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 132Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 167
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-b--aCBBB---A-A-bb-bBcBba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 74.40% (G:26.14% B:1.62%) 74.81% (G:29.04% B:2.24%) Opponent Winning Chances: 25.60% (G:8.30% B:0.26%) 25.19% (G:8.51% B:0.21%) Cubeless Equities +0.680 +1.443 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.879 (-0.121) ±0.013 (+0.866..+0.892) Double/Take: +1.264 (+0.264) ±0.020 (+1.244..+1.284) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58457205
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 5 minutes 30 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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