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Advanced Backgammon #62 -- Rollouts and Variants

Posted By: Igor
Date: Monday, 31 March 2014, at 3:27 p.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #62 (Igor)

I'm back after a not so short hiatus, so let's get this rolling again.

This is actually a drop. White desperately needs a six otherwise her front position is going to collapse. Look at how fives and fours would play, for example. White's position is disconnected and blue controls the outfield. This is usually a sign of big trouble. Good position to keep in mind.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 132
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaa-CBBB---A-A-bb-bBcBba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.79% (G:24.54% B:1.46%) 72.52% (G:26.25% B:1.70%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.21% (G:9.55% B:0.30%) 27.48% (G:9.46% B:0.25%)
Cubeless Equities +0.597 +1.266
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.850 (-0.150)0.013 (+0.837..+0.862)
Double/Take:+1.079 (+0.079)0.020 (+1.059..+1.099)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58457205
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 53 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Now to the variants. Stepping up with one back checker is still no good.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-aCBBB---A-A-bb-bBcBba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.15% (G:24.16% B:1.36%) 72.86% (G:26.21% B:1.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.85% (G:9.17% B:0.29%) 27.14% (G:9.37% B:0.27%)
Cubeless Equities +0.604 +1.278
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.841 (-0.159)0.014 (+0.827..+0.855)
Double/Take:+1.086 (+0.086)0.023 (+1.063..+1.109)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58457205
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 13 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Step up with one more checker and white can squeeze out a take since two back checkers now see light and white has a chance to anchor on either 22 or 21 points both of which are not yet blocked by blue prime.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 130
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-aaCBBB---A-A-bb-bBcBba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.29% (G:23.74% B:1.36%) 70.85% (G:25.78% B:1.74%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.71% (G:10.25% B:0.33%) 29.15% (G:10.57% B:0.28%)
Cubeless Equities +0.551 +1.167
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.767 (-0.191)0.014 (+0.753..+0.780)
Double/Take:+0.9580.024 (+0.934..+0.982)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.042)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58457205
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Deep anchor is not much help.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 132
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--aCBBB---A-A-bb-bBcBba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.40% (G:26.14% B:1.62%) 74.81% (G:29.04% B:2.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.60% (G:8.30% B:0.26%) 25.19% (G:8.51% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities +0.680 +1.443
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.879 (-0.121)0.013 (+0.866..+0.892)
Double/Take:+1.264 (+0.264)0.020 (+1.244..+1.284)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58457205
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 30 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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