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please help! (i may be blind...)
Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 31 March 2014, at 5:14 p.m.
In Response To: please help! (i may be blind...) (sonrik)
We'll do this for money since there's little difference AtS.
This is rather easy to calculate assuming R/T. There are 25 hitters. I think White loses everytime he misses since I don't think he can then win often enough after running a checker (p & p rolls) or breaking board. Even a 66 looks like a close pass in the race so we can ignore that.
How often can White pick up both blots? Well 4 rolls hit both straight away. 55 is only going to hit one checker. On the other 20 rolls CLEARLY White is a favorite to pick up the 2nd blot. Lets say that the second blot is hit in 12 of those 20 games. OK now that's 16 times both checkers get hit in 36 games.
White can win somewhat over 40% G's after hitting both checkers since Black's board is badly broken. He can also win a G sometimes after hitting one checker but very rarely can lose after hitting. I think the G's are somewhat more common that twice as likely as the losses after hitting 1 so I'll give White a fractional increase. All in all I estimate 6.8 gammons in 36 games for White here.
So since GV is .50, this effectively means that White wins 25 games + 1/2 of 6.8 for a total of 28.4 games out of 36 and this is cubeful so Black has a very CLEAR pass.
I knew this anyhow, having done this work previously. 24 shots would be very borderline between a drop and a take here.

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