If we make the small split suggested by the bot we're more likely to make some better anchor be it the 21pt, 22pt, 23pt, whatever whereas if we make my OtB play and split straight to the 21pt we aren't left alone often enough and able to then roll a three on top of that to make the best possible anchor. The small split leaves our checkers back out of harms way for the most part. It was too optimistic on my part to think that I could make the big split and anchor up.
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| XGID=-A-BBAC-BAa-b--abbbcb--AB-:1:1:1:52:2:3:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 52 | |||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/22 6/1 | eq: -0.920 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/21 6/1 | eq: -0.990 (-0.070) | |||
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| 1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 85472358 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
As for the bear off cube if you put it into XG it will be a near blunder to cube back by ~.075. However, if you put it into GNU with the staggered strength (100 elo) match equity table it will be a blunder by the same amount to not cube. Being able to put 4 points on the line in a no skill position when you're a favorite against a clearly stronger opponent is a big deal.
| gnubg | 20 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
     | |||
| Stick | 17 | ||
| Position ID: nAIAwO4AAAAAAA Match ID: UQngADAAEAAE | |||
| Cube decision | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-ply cubeless equity | +0.149 | (Money: +0.149) | |
| 0.574 0.000 0.000 - 0.426 0.000 0.000 | |||
| Cubeful equities: | |||
| 1. | Double, take | +0.568 | |
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.000 | +0.432 |
| 3. | No double | +0.495 | -0.073 |
| Proper cube action: | Redouble, take | ||