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Rollout: Six-primed #4

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 3 April 2014, at 2:54 p.m.

In Response To: Six-primed #4 (Timothy Chow)

I don't think that I have much to add to the excellent comments that have been posted. The 22 root number is the first thing you have to notice, although you still have to judge the win/gammon tradeoff. There's less equity at stake here than in the previous positions.

One thing that I will note is that against certain human opponents, something like 8/7*/6 5/4(2) may be the best play in practice. To extract maximum equity, your opponent has to know how to get those gammons. I know some players who will screw this up, e.g., holding on to the six-prime instead of going for the closeout with a loose hit of 7/1*. There might even be some banana-split plays that White is supposed to make that humans might miss. Also if you do manage to anchor, some people will make mistakes playing against your ace-point game. (Though you might blunder that equity back trying to contain White's checker after you hit a shot!)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 122
Unlimited Game
pip: 76
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bD-CACBaA---------bbbbbbA-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.Rollout18/7* 7/4eq: -1.022
Player:
Opponent:
6.95% (G:1.54% B:0.03%)
93.05% (G:18.86% B:0.68%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-1.027...-1.017) - [54.6%]
Duration: 3 minutes 38 seconds
2.Rollout18/7* 6/5 6/4eq: -1.023 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
6.07% (G:1.26% B:0.03%)
93.93% (G:16.88% B:0.61%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-1.028...-1.018) - [44.8%]
Duration: 3 minutes 28 seconds
3.Rollout18/7* 5/4(3)eq: -1.030 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
5.90% (G:1.18% B:0.02%)
94.10% (G:16.79% B:0.60%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-1.035...-1.024) - [0.6%]
Duration: 3 minutes 40 seconds
4.Rollout16/4(2)eq: -1.051 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
4.28% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)
95.72% (G:14.66% B:0.49%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-1.055...-1.048) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 07 seconds
5.Rollout18/7* 4/2 3/2eq: -1.054 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
4.21% (G:0.33% B:0.00%)
95.79% (G:14.75% B:0.45%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-1.058...-1.050) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 00 second
6.Rollout18/7* 7/6 5/4(2)eq: -1.059 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
6.71% (G:1.22% B:0.02%)
93.29% (G:21.53% B:0.87%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-1.064...-1.054) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 31 seconds
7.Rollout15/4(2) 5/3eq: -1.069 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
4.20% (G:0.33% B:0.00%)
95.80% (G:16.13% B:0.56%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-1.073...-1.065) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 13 seconds
8.Rollout18/7* 6/5(2) 4/3eq: -1.089 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
4.34% (G:0.47% B:0.01%)
95.66% (G:18.61% B:0.68%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-1.094...-1.085) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 29 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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