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Advanced Backgammon Blunder

Posted By: phil simborg
Date: Friday, 4 April 2014, at 8:48 p.m.

I was reviewing Robertie's 1984 Advanced Backgammon looking for interesting positions to steal for lessons when I came upon this monster blunder. Robertie's play looked very wrong to me, and I was vindicated by the rollout which made his play a .180 error.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 121
11 point match
pip: 102
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BaBBBB-C---b-b--b-dB-bb--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout120/11eq: +0.342
Player:
Opponent:
62.23% (G:28.54% B:1.49%)
37.77% (G:6.59% B:0.23%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.336...+0.349) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds
2.Rollout18/4 8/3eq: +0.162 (-0.180)
Player:
Opponent:
58.37% (G:20.23% B:0.26%)
41.63% (G:5.00% B:0.25%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.156...+0.169) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 52 seconds
3.XG Roller++20/15 8/4eq: +0.237 (-0.105)
Player:
Opponent:
59.60% (G:29.32% B:0.98%)
40.40% (G:10.75% B:0.46%)
4.XG Roller++20/16 20/15eq: +0.105 (-0.237)
Player:
Opponent:
56.59% (G:25.52% B:1.28%)
43.41% (G:11.92% B:0.37%)
5.2-ply20/16 8/3eq: +0.005 (-0.338)
Player:
Opponent:
52.69% (G:24.70% B:1.04%)
47.31% (G:11.96% B:0.50%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.12.201.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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