Thanks for those who provided additional comments. I hadn't thought about the 55 root number.
I rolled out a few variants below (before seeing the additional comments) in order to test the theory that White's extra checker in the zone matters. At first I thought that these variants provided partial confirmation of that theory, but looking at them again, I think that they what they actually demonstrate is the importance of root numbers.
Variant 1
| | White is Player 1
score: 0 pip: 107 | Unlimited Game | pip: 69 score: 0
Blue is Player 2 | |
XGID=aaFCBBA-----------bbbcbbA-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10 |
Blue to play 31 |
1. | Rollout1 | 6/2 | eq: -0.998 |
| Player: Opponent: | 7.16% (G:0.94% B:0.06%) 92.84% (G:16.77% B:0.58%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.002...-0.995) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 18 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 6/3 2/1* | eq: -1.052 (-0.053) |
| Player: Opponent: | 4.92% (G:0.23% B:0.02%) 95.08% (G:16.07% B:0.59%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.056...-1.048) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 15 seconds |
|
|
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Variant 2
| | White is Player 1
score: 0 pip: 108 | Unlimited Game | pip: 69 score: 0
Blue is Player 2 | |
XGID=aaFCBBA-----------bbcbbbA-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10 |
Blue to play 31 |
1. | Rollout1 | 6/2 | eq: -1.041 |
| Player: Opponent: | 5.69% (G:0.47% B:0.03%) 94.31% (G:17.00% B:0.63%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.045...-1.038) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 25 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 6/3 2/1* | eq: -1.059 (-0.018) |
| Player: Opponent: | 4.73% (G:0.19% B:0.00%) 95.27% (G:16.33% B:0.61%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.063...-1.056) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 26 seconds |
|
|
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Variant 3
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 103 | Unlimited Game | pip: 75 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-aEC-DB-----aa----bbbbbbA-:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10 |
Blue to play 61 |
1. | Rollout1 | 2/1* | eq: -1.062 |
| Player: Opponent: | 4.50% (G:0.18% B:0.01%) 95.50% (G:16.16% B:0.52%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.065...-1.058) - [99.6%] Duration: 3 minutes 05 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 3/2 | eq: -1.068 (-0.006) |
| Player: Opponent: | 4.45% (G:0.19% B:0.00%) 95.55% (G:16.59% B:0.64%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.071...-1.065) - [0.4%] Duration: 2 minutes 38 seconds |
|
|
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10