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Not the brick you're expecting

Posted By: Robert Chow
Date: Monday, 7 April 2014, at 5:06 p.m.

In Response To: Not the brick you're expecting (Keene)

After hitting with 11/8*, I would play 8/2 with the 6. What I like about this play is that it leaves me with very little chance of losing and allows me to go for the gammon in a virtually safe manner. The only returns by Brown that I am a bit concerned about are 62, 21 and 11 and even then I should still be a big favorite. Also, 8/2 has the small bonus of giving him the root number 32: b/23*, 4/1.

Hitting the second checker, 7/1*, looks like the natural way of going for the closeout. However, I am very concerned about the sequence, any 1 by Brown, especially 21 and 11, followed by dancing on my part. After this, Brown will have significant winning chances by hitting another checker or can just anchor on the 24 point if he still has a checker on the bar. Since a closeout will only win about 40% gammons, I'm not sure I should allow this type of counterplay.

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