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Rollout: Wild or not #2 (63R-43D-51)

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 8 April 2014, at 12:43 a.m.

In Response To: Wild or not #2 (63R-43D-51) (Timothy Chow)

This position could be a poster child for the contrast between modern BG theory and Magriel's old dicta of "don't slot while split" and "don't come under the gun."

I don't plan to post Nack's variants (I'll leave him to do that if he wants) but I'm posting a few other positions below which can be analyzed using similar principles. They all feature a builder on White's 9pt. I'll leave the retroanalysis and nactation to those who like that sort of thing.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
Unlimited Game
pip: 168
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---cE-aac-e----AA:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.Rollout1Bar/20 6/5eq: -0.231
Player:
Opponent:
45.74% (G:11.87% B:0.63%)
54.26% (G:19.77% B:1.13%)
Conf.: 0.015 (-0.246...-0.217) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 13/8eq: -0.297 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
43.58% (G:11.83% B:0.66%)
56.42% (G:19.08% B:1.00%)
Conf.: 0.014 (-0.311...-0.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 20 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/20 24/23eq: -0.308 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
43.81% (G:10.63% B:0.53%)
56.19% (G:18.62% B:0.67%)
Conf.: 0.016 (-0.324...-0.292) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 17 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


This one's a similar but somewhat tougher decision since White has a more threatening attack and 13/10 is more flexible than 13/8. W gets you gammoned significantly more often. This could stand a longer rollout but I'm not planning to do one.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
pip: 168
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---bE--acbe----AA:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.Rollout1Bar/22 6/5eq: -0.442
Player:
Opponent:
41.48% (G:10.40% B:0.49%)
58.52% (G:24.67% B:1.29%)
Conf.: 0.016 (-0.458...-0.427) - [99.6%]
Duration: 26 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 13/10eq: -0.472 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
39.57% (G:10.39% B:0.49%)
60.43% (G:20.23% B:1.52%)
Conf.: 0.015 (-0.487...-0.457) - [0.4%]
Duration: 26 minutes 07 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


This one was surprising to me since Blue is ahead in the race and has a slightly weaker board. And actually, 24/20 24/23 is very close.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 152
Unlimited Game
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-B--E-C---cC--ac-d-b--B-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.Rollout124/20 6/5eq: -0.264
Player:
Opponent:
44.12% (G:15.03% B:1.20%)
55.88% (G:22.17% B:1.26%)
Conf.: 0.007 (-0.271...-0.257) - [99.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 24/20eq: -0.277 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
43.74% (G:14.27% B:1.15%)
56.26% (G:20.96% B:0.78%)
Conf.: 0.008 (-0.285...-0.270) - [0.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
3.Rollout224/23 13/9eq: -0.317 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
42.81% (G:14.09% B:0.98%)
57.19% (G:21.21% B:1.11%)
Conf.: 0.015 (-0.332...-0.302) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 05 seconds
4.Rollout213/9 6/5eq: -0.319 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
43.00% (G:14.84% B:1.07%)
57.00% (G:20.67% B:1.72%)
Conf.: 0.015 (-0.334...-0.304) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 20 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Somewhat similar to the previous position but an easier decision, since White's attacking potential is reduced relative to her priming potential.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
Unlimited Game
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-B--E-C---bC-aabbe----B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout124/22 6/5eq: -0.179
Player:
Opponent:
45.82% (G:15.32% B:1.09%)
54.18% (G:19.56% B:1.06%)
Conf.: 0.016 (-0.195...-0.163) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: -0.231 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
44.18% (G:15.37% B:1.25%)
55.82% (G:18.94% B:1.27%)
Conf.: 0.019 (-0.250...-0.213) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 50 seconds
3.Rollout124/23 24/22eq: -0.246 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
43.96% (G:14.23% B:0.88%)
56.04% (G:19.10% B:0.82%)
Conf.: 0.016 (-0.262...-0.231) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 22 seconds
4.Rollout124/21eq: -0.265 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:
43.59% (G:13.97% B:0.95%)
56.41% (G:19.68% B:0.82%)
Conf.: 0.015 (-0.280...-0.250) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 12 seconds
5.Rollout124/23 13/11eq: -0.298 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:
42.67% (G:14.63% B:0.94%)
57.33% (G:19.58% B:1.03%)
Conf.: 0.017 (-0.315...-0.280) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 15 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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