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Probability that a 6.0 player can join Mochy's 4.0 club

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Tuesday, 8 April 2014, at 9:19 p.m.

In Response To: Probability that a 6.0 player can join Mochy's 4.0 club (Timothy Chow)

So if you think that a match gives you a certain number of opportunities to err, and each error is exponentially distributed, then you expect something like a gamma distribution to emerge.

What is the justification for the errors being exponentially distributed? Do you just have empirical evidence, or is there some intrinsic nature of errors that cause them to be distributed as such?

Anyway, I experimented with a few values of k and θ and found that k = 4 and θ = 3/2 seemed to be plausible parameters for a "typical" 6.0 player.

Is k the number of errors in a match? If so, I can tell you, as somebody who approximates a typical 6.0 player, I'm shanking way more than 4 moves in a match. Way more.

Furthermore, if k is the number of errors in a match, that itself is a random variable.

What does θ represent?

JLee

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