As was surmised, why would I post a boring old holding game unless there was a catch. The catch that was caught by a couple, the score. I think a lot of people think "ahead on the scoreboard, cube later, take earlier". While often true, esp. considering non gammonish positions like this one, is not always true.
You could either do the math:
- Double/Pass for 6a 3a or 29% ME
- Double/Take/Lose for 6a 2a or 20% ME
- Double/Take/Win for 4a 4a or 50% ME
We would be risking 9% to gain 21%. Risk/(risk+gain) or 9/30 or 30% as the dead cube take point. The 4 cube take point is around 25% so there's no extra recube vig to figure in meaning our TP AtS is clearly higher than its money counterpart.
Or you might try thinking about it commonsensical. (oh, it's word SON) You strive to keep away from 3a many away score because of how handcuffed you are using the cube. Alternately how nice it is to get to 2a. Grain of salt advice.
AtS
                       |
| ||||
| XGID=----bBEBB-B-bB---babbbaa--:0:0:1:00:3:1:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 72.24% (G:2.66% B:0.12%) | 72.65% (G:2.27% B:0.09%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 27.76% (G:1.56% B:0.06%) | 27.35% (G:1.33% B:0.04%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.463 | +1.126 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.847 (-0.047) | ±0.006 (+0.841..+0.853) |
| Double/Take: | +0.894 | ±0.007 (+0.887..+0.901) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.106) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76453195 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 41 minutes 16 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Money
|
| ||||
| XGID=----bBEBB-B-bB---babbbaa--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 72.33% (G:2.49% B:0.08%) | 72.70% (G:2.42% B:0.13%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 27.67% (G:1.48% B:0.04%) | 27.30% (G:1.46% B:0.04%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.457 | +0.929 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.763 | ±0.007 (+0.756..+0.770) |
| Double/Take: | +0.758 (-0.005) | ±0.007 (+0.750..+0.765) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.237) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.0% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76453195 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 83.4% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 52 minutes 37 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10