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Revisiting O'Hagan AtS Cube/Ray Response

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 11 April 2014, at 12:04 p.m.

In Response To: Revisiting O'Hagan AtS Cube/Ray Response (Stick)

Everybody seems to have an opinion about a 85-90% position. Here is a simple truth: backgammon is a complex enough game that it can't be reduced to simple platitudes and snappy catch-alls. Something someone said once probably doesn't capture the nuances of the whole of backgammon. If you redouble to 16 the match will end quickly, if the game ends on 4 the match will end slowly, and no matter what the leader will be a huge favorite and no matter what the favorite will lose some of those matches (and usually complain about his bad luck afterwards). Exactly how to quantify everything is a lot more complicated than most people seem to insinuate.

That said, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that skill might make a difference when there is a 16 cube involved (and a substantial chance of an immediate mistake).

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