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Rollout: Which bar? #1 (54S-44P-61)

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 13 April 2014, at 6:26 p.m.

In Response To: Which bar? #1 (54S-44P-61) (Timothy Chow)

Back in December 2011, Nack proposed the following rule of thumb:

If the opponent correctly makes his 5pt with 44 or his 3pt with 55 on the second roll for money, do not separate your back checkers on the third roll.

Here, bar/24 is forced, so do we then separate our back checkers with 24/18? I thought not, so I played 13/7. That would have been the right instinct with the 55P variants already posted in this thread. But after 44P, White's racing lead is less and her priming potential is greater than after 55P, so that tips the scales in favor of the opponent's bar. You can observe a similar principle at work in 65R-42P-44P-64.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 151
Unlimited Game
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-D---cD---c-eb---AA:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout1Bar/18eq: -0.532
Player:
Opponent:		39.33% (G:9.35% B:0.42%)
60.67% (G:25.65% B:0.81%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.546...-0.518) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 13/7eq: -0.578 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:		37.70% (G:9.62% B:0.38%)
62.30% (G:22.09% B:1.62%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.592...-0.564) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 14 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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