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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 14 October 2006, at 9:56 p.m.

In Response To: 52S-55A-4X-C? (Stick)

What I found most amusing about this is it's one of the few 'normal' early blitzing doubles that Kit didn't include for some odd reason in his BG Encyclopedia? I meant to roll this out with Snowie, and possibly more trials, but forgot until I went to post it. Seems it's a bit short of a double and an easy take. Moving the checker from the 2 pt. to the 4 pt. puts it under more pressure as blue can now hit with 2s, 4s, & 9s and would also like to have the 4 pt. more than the 2 pt. In addition typically when blue hits loose on the 4 pt. he'll bring another builder down from the mid as a cover making the position that much stronger. In practice I've never seen anyone not double this position but it may be wrong. Will post a longer rollout when I get it done.

Money Game
Cube Action?
160
147
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.410
0.5% 30.1% 60.4% 39.6% 9.9% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.410 ±0.013. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 41859 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
1. No double 0.549
2. Double, take 0.531 (-0.019)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.451)
Proper cube action: No double, take4%

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