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BGonline.org Forums
Revisiting O'Hagan AtS Cube/Ray Response
Posted By: Coolrey In Response To: Revisiting O'Hagan AtS Cube/Ray Response (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 15 April 2014, at 2:24 a.m.
Late response... I don't come here too often anymore but when I do I will contribute something.
Meanwhile I will not take the time to consult XG before I give an answer because I always want to give the right answer, because I am not trying to appear to be the best player in the world.
I just give an opinion. That one I took less than a minute and figured there must be enough passers to make it a redouble, even though it is clearly a take at the score... and no I didn't know the exact numbers either but it doesn't matter, I was pouring a cup of coffee probably. I said a few times 30% of Open players would pass, and you, (Stick), think that is an overzealous exaggeration. I think you are wrong, and I play at the tournaments where people would pass it. Not the Nordic Open for the World Team.
No, I would not double you three because I know you would know what I know. So you sell this used fiat to the kind of customer willing to believe you when you say it is worth 10K. SOME of them will pass... You retrieved the number and state is 11.x %? Okay, that made my point.
IF 12% of all players pass then it is right to double. You may lose the match on a big game, but you might also lose holding the cube and losing the game, or by holding the cube and winning the game too.
Its a little easier to win if you steal.
even if only 10% of all players pass it, but you don't give this cube to the 10 players in 100 you KNOW will take it, (or more), then you have achieved 10/90 players which is what like 11%? So, knowing your customers can get you a higher percentage of right "guesses" and make you right.
I had nothing on the line answering this position over coffee or after I woke up from my afternoon nap. Just like to write and throw out ideas.
Any of you who think for one second that Stick has not fucked with his opponents minds in doubles or over the board playing matches is kind of naiive. He spent more time on this because he wanted to criticize my meatloaf or approach. That is his schtick, while mine is just spouting off stuff that works.
I like a little spicy sausage in my meatloaf, but OTB I am probably more conservative than any of these guys... I might have laid off of this unless I had a sense that my opponent is one of the passers. I know Ed O or Malcolm are not passing, so then I would consider further.
There are no prizes for figuring out really close decisions OTB, but there are penalties in the form of time wastage. I don't like playing on short time, though the young guns don't seem to mind wasting it.
Its fun to steal points from weaklings and bean counters who don't count too well yet, and you can't steal from them if you don't throw it out there. Also if you are not participating then how can you have a feel for what the average opposition will do? I have more experience than Stick here, because he stopped playing and because he only started playing 10 years after I began, if that.
Surely 12% of players will pass and probably 30% of the ones I would tend to redouble. Even if they take it, oh well, if you like cookies you are going to get caught with your hand in the cookie jar sometimes.
I actually liked Neil's response best: He likes to wait and clear the 8 point and then get a bad take. lol. No wonder he is the best. He figures there are 30%, (to borrow a number), that will take after he clears the 8 point maybe and has lost his market. Brilliant! Another full level of expertise and bungle mania.
He wants to take advantage of a different weakness, which is evidently more profitable. That should be the lesson here... Have a plan whatever you do... There are nearly 1000 ABT points between our differing opinions. Even a bad plan can work if it is executed, like getting them to pass a take or getting them to take a pass.
notice in the aftermath that neither Neil nor I were trying for an "optimal" redouble. We are trying to force an error to maximize our potential.
Stick's ideas are valid and workable too. Next time you might find me arguing the other side because of a recent bad beat. Everything is relative to the situation, and the circumstances at the moment.
happy rolling mates!
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