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Revisiting O'Hagan AtS Cube/Ray Response

Posted By: Coolrey
Date: Tuesday, 15 April 2014, at 3:11 p.m.

In Response To: Revisiting O'Hagan AtS Cube/Ray Response (Stick)

Okay Stick lets put this one to bed. I didn't do any exhaustive analysis when I answered this one. I made an observation based on OTB exp. and defended it.

As soon as the number of passers goes above 12% you are fucking up by not cubing. The reason unknown quantities are unknown is that they don't do what the bot would. I could announce to many players that they have 15% winning chances and they would still pass. Not everyone knows match equities!

Your practice with the bots and studying other matches, (by unknown quantities?), probably has improved your play. It probably hasn't improved your ability to predict what someone is going to do.

My life didn't depend on this suggestion for a play, but it seems like yours depends on proving I am wrong somehow? Maybe your theory that you need more against a weaker player to justify redoubling is right, but no doubt it will be swamped by the number of points you can steal from the guys who see that they don't have much chance of winning this game.

Meanwhile, I will repeat myself when I say that if you don't redouble, you are merely showing a preference for which way you would rather lose. It's the "right" play not to redouble, and it is not bad to ever do the right thing. Sometimes you can do better, and I thought this was one of those cases. If you want insurance against losing a big game, hold it.

If you think you can steal, send it.

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