otb look's obvious but...
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: otb look's obvious but... (alex21)
Date: Saturday, 19 April 2014, at 3:14 p.m.
In Response To: otb look's obvious but... (alex21)
This doesn't look obvious to me. As you say, the argument for not hitting is that it reduces shots. Despite White's second blot, you'd prefer not getting hit to getting a shot at the second checker, since you're clearly ahead in the race.
However, one argument for hitting is that it makes it easier for you to get your second checker around safely. If White misses then she will typically be further away from your back checker than she would like to be. The rule of thumb that I learned from Kleiman's book is that 11 pips away is about the distance White wants to be. The other argument for hitting is that even though you're ahead in the race now, you won't be so far ahead if White manages to hit you. Hitting gains you more-or-less one crossover, which could be the difference between winning and losing if White hits.
I don't know how to calculate the tradeoff OTB, but I believe that these are the key considerations.
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