Here are the positions CMC asked about, taken from Stick's match file (and therefore including Stick's comments when he chose to comment).
          
 
           
 | | White is Denmark
score: 0
pip: 165 | | 17 point match | pip: 116
score: 12
Blue is World |
|
| XGID=a-b-BCCBCa--cA----abbab-A-:1:-1:-1:31:12:0:0:17:10 |
| White to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 13/12* | eq: +0.102 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.65% (G:8.30% B:0.42%)
63.35% (G:39.85% B:13.60%) | Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.083...+0.121) - [93.8%]
Duration: 35 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 7/4 | eq: +0.083 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.13% (G:7.52% B:0.33%)
63.87% (G:31.85% B:7.97%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.067...+0.098) - [6.2%]
Duration: 21 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52357769
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Sander offered to bet on this play (24, 4) and nobody took him up on the offer. |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Denmark
score: 0
pip: 161 | | 17 point match | pip: 116
score: 12
Blue is World |
|
| XGID=-ab-BCCBCa--cA-----bbbb-A-:1:-1:1:52:12:0:0:17:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 13/6 | eq: -0.204 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.04% (G:26.31% B:1.85%)
40.96% (G:6.37% B:0.26%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 8/3 5/3 | eq: -0.261 (-0.057) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.21% (G:26.34% B:1.95%)
39.79% (G:9.29% B:0.46%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Denmark
score: 0
pip: 161 | | 17 point match | pip: 109
score: 12
Blue is World |
|
| XGID=-ab-BCDBCa--c------bbbb-A-:1:-1:-1:00:12:0:0:17:10 |
| White on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 41.74% (G:8.04% B:0.33%) | 41.92% (G:8.30% B:0.33%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 58.26% (G:28.56% B:7.47%) | 58.08% (G:29.12% B:10.51%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0.258 | +0.268 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.294 | ±0.014 (+0.281..+0.308) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.264 (-0.030) | ±0.015 (+0.250..+0.279) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.706) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.9% |
| Rollout details |
1620 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52357769
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 99.8% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 34 minutes 03 seconds |
The market losing sequences are so scarce and the possible upcoming cubes a much more difficult decision for the World team I would not have doubled here. I felt like it's a gift to double here because the World team picks up the cube without any thought. |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
It's not clear how good XG's containment game is, but here are three interesting decisions from the endgame.
 
   
| | White is Denmark
score: 0
pip: 143 | | 17 point match | pip: 36
score: 12
Blue is World |
|
| XGID=-EbBa-------aba-----bbbb-A:2:1:-1:61:12:0:0:17:10 |
| White to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/16 | eq: +0.222 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
37.99% (G:16.86% B:3.14%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.217...+0.227) - [98.5%]
Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 21/14 | eq: +0.215 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.34% (G:17.22% B:3.67%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.210...+0.219) - [1.5%]
Duration: 3 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 21/20 12/6 | eq: +0.158 (-0.064) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.86% (G:22.35% B:10.18%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.154...+0.162) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52357769
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
In containment positions in general, when you have such excellent coverage otherwise you don't usually need to make any 'big' plays like slotting the point directly. DK can sit back calmly and await either the few natural numbers they have to make the six point, wait for World to enter and hop out with a six, hit again then giving DK more men to naturally make it, or await World to enter and be stuck on the 6pt and hit loose then. |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Denmark
score: 0
pip: 160 | | 17 point match | pip: 22
score: 12
Blue is World |
|
| XGID=aEbB-aa----Aa---a---bbbb--:2:1:1:51:12:0:0:17:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 11/6* 6/5* | eq: +0.718 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 81.99% (G:71.21% B:50.40%)
18.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.711...+0.724) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 43 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/6* 1/Off | eq: +0.659 (-0.059) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 79.33% (G:65.54% B:47.17%)
20.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.652...+0.666) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 55 seconds |
|
| |
1 432 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52357769
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Sander thought hitting the extra checker was right. I think he bet MCG $500.
It's tougher for possible future shots to make up for immediate shots. Immediate extra shots are 100% sure to happen, future hang ups are not. End Captain Obvious. |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
I don't understand Stick's comment here. Was MCG's reasoning that avoiding the extra hit would reduce future shot jeopardy if the World were not hit immediately? I would have thought that the reasoning would have been that ripping one would increase winning chances in the event that they were hit.
In light of Stick's aforementioned comment about "big" containment plays, I thought the position below was interesting.
 
| | White is Denmark
score: 0
pip: 122 | | 17 point match | pip: 35
score: 12
Blue is World |
|
| XGID=-DaB--a----aa---ab--bbbb-A:2:1:-1:33:12:0:0:17:10 |
| White to play 33 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 14/11 13/7 9/6 | eq: +0.030 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
47.22% (G:22.09% B:5.58%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.026...+0.034) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 19/16 14/11 13/7 | eq: +0.015 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
48.02% (G:21.52% B:4.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.011...+0.020) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 39 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 19/16 14/11 13/10 9/6 | eq: +0.014 (-0.016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
48.02% (G:22.50% B:6.14%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.010...+0.018) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 52 seconds |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 19/13 14/11 9/6 | eq: +0.014 (-0.016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
48.30% (G:21.27% B:2.80%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 19/16 13/7 9/6 | eq: +0.009 (-0.021) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
48.61% (G:21.74% B:3.57%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52357769
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2