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The positions CMC asked about

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 21 April 2014, at 1:57 p.m.

In Response To: World V. DK Final Match (Christian Munk-Christensen)

Here are the positions CMC asked about, taken from Stick's match file (and therefore including Stick's comments when he chose to comment).





White is Denmark

score: 0
pip: 165
17 point match
pip: 116
score: 12

Blue is World
XGID=a-b-BCCBCa--cA----abbab-A-:1:-1:-1:31:12:0:0:17:10
White to play 31

1.Rollout1Bar/22 13/12* eq: +0.102
Player:
Opponent:
36.65% (G:8.30% B:0.42%)
63.35% (G:39.85% B:13.60%)
Conf.: 0.019 (+0.083...+0.121) - [93.8%]
Duration: 35 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 7/4eq: +0.083 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
36.13% (G:7.52% B:0.33%)
63.87% (G:31.85% B:7.97%)
Conf.: 0.016 (+0.067...+0.098) - [6.2%]
Duration: 21 minutes 06 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52357769
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Sander offered to bet on this play (24, 4) and nobody took him up on the offer.

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2






White is Denmark

score: 0
pip: 161
17 point match
pip: 116
score: 12

Blue is World
XGID=-ab-BCCBCa--cA-----bbbb-A-:1:-1:1:52:12:0:0:17:10
Blue to play 52

1.XG Roller++13/6eq: -0.204
Player:
Opponent:
59.04% (G:26.31% B:1.85%)
40.96% (G:6.37% B:0.26%)
2.XG Roller++8/3 5/3eq: -0.261 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
60.21% (G:26.34% B:1.95%)
39.79% (G:9.29% B:0.46%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2






White is Denmark

score: 0
pip: 161
17 point match
pip: 109
score: 12

Blue is World
XGID=-ab-BCDBCa--c------bbbb-A-:1:-1:-1:00:12:0:0:17:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 41.74% (G:8.04% B:0.33%) 41.92% (G:8.30% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 58.26% (G:28.56% B:7.47%) 58.08% (G:29.12% B:10.51%)
Cubeless Equities -0.258 +0.268
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.2940.014 (+0.281..+0.308)
Redouble/Take:+0.264 (-0.030)0.015 (+0.250..+0.279)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.706)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.9%
Rollout details
1620 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52357769
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 34 minutes 03 seconds

The market losing sequences are so scarce and the possible upcoming cubes a much more difficult decision for the World team I would not have doubled here. I felt like it's a gift to double here because the World team picks up the cube without any thought.

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


It's not clear how good XG's containment game is, but here are three interesting decisions from the endgame.





White is Denmark

score: 0
pip: 143
17 point match
pip: 36
score: 12

Blue is World
XGID=-EbBa-------aba-----bbbb-A:2:1:-1:61:12:0:0:17:10
White to play 61

1.Rollout123/16eq: +0.222
Player:
Opponent:
62.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
37.99% (G:16.86% B:3.14%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.217...+0.227) - [98.5%]
Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout121/14eq: +0.215 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
61.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.34% (G:17.22% B:3.67%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.210...+0.219) - [1.5%]
Duration: 3 minutes 42 seconds
3.Rollout121/20 12/6eq: +0.158 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
59.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.86% (G:22.35% B:10.18%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.154...+0.162) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 19 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52357769
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

In containment positions in general, when you have such excellent coverage otherwise you don't usually need to make any 'big' plays like slotting the point directly. DK can sit back calmly and await either the few natural numbers they have to make the six point, wait for World to enter and hop out with a six, hit again then giving DK more men to naturally make it, or await World to enter and be stuck on the 6pt and hit loose then.

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2






White is Denmark

score: 0
pip: 160
17 point match
pip: 22
score: 12

Blue is World
XGID=aEbB-aa----Aa---a---bbbb--:2:1:1:51:12:0:0:17:10
Blue to play 51

1.Rollout111/6* 6/5* eq: +0.718
Player:
Opponent:
81.99% (G:71.21% B:50.40%)
18.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.711...+0.724) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 43 seconds
2.Rollout111/6* 1/Offeq: +0.659 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
79.33% (G:65.54% B:47.17%)
20.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.652...+0.666) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 55 seconds
1 432 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52357769
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Sander thought hitting the extra checker was right. I think he bet MCG $500.

It's tougher for possible future shots to make up for immediate shots. Immediate extra shots are 100% sure to happen, future hang ups are not. End Captain Obvious.

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I don't understand Stick's comment here. Was MCG's reasoning that avoiding the extra hit would reduce future shot jeopardy if the World were not hit immediately? I would have thought that the reasoning would have been that ripping one would increase winning chances in the event that they were hit.


In light of Stick's aforementioned comment about "big" containment plays, I thought the position below was interesting.





White is Denmark

score: 0
pip: 122
17 point match
pip: 35
score: 12

Blue is World
XGID=-DaB--a----aa---ab--bbbb-A:2:1:-1:33:12:0:0:17:10
White to play 33

1.Rollout114/11 13/7 9/6eq: +0.030
Player:
Opponent:
52.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
47.22% (G:22.09% B:5.58%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.026...+0.034) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 05 seconds
2.Rollout119/16 14/11 13/7eq: +0.015 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
51.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
48.02% (G:21.52% B:4.23%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.011...+0.020) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 39 seconds
3.Rollout119/16 14/11 13/10 9/6eq: +0.014 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
51.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
48.02% (G:22.50% B:6.14%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.010...+0.018) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 52 seconds
4.XG Roller++19/13 14/11 9/6eq: +0.014 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
51.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
48.30% (G:21.27% B:2.80%)
5.XG Roller++19/16 13/7 9/6eq: +0.009 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
51.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
48.61% (G:21.74% B:3.57%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52357769
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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