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Rollout: Break anchor to hit? #2

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 21 April 2014, at 2:51 p.m.

In Response To: Break anchor to hit? #2 (Timothy Chow)

I think that this decision is more delicate than most people think. XGR++ narrowly favors the hit at DMP, and if we shift Blue's blot to his 2pt then the two plays are very close.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
Unlimited Game
pip: 145
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---AbBE---C-bB-bab-b--bBb-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 43

1.Rollout16/3 6/2eq: -0.139
Player:
Opponent:
47.13% (G:11.81% B:0.47%)
52.87% (G:15.05% B:0.53%)
Conf.: 0.012 (-0.151...-0.127) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 56 seconds
2.Rollout123/16* eq: -0.198 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
47.73% (G:13.39% B:0.68%)
52.27% (G:23.97% B:0.75%)
Conf.: 0.016 (-0.213...-0.182) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 31 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


DMP:




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
1 point match
pip: 145
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---AbBE---C-bB-bab-b--bBb-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 43

1.XG Roller++23/16* eq: -0.040
Player:
Opponent:
48.01% (G:13.13% B:0.60%)
51.99% (G:22.25% B:0.73%)
2.XG Roller++6/3 6/2eq: -0.060 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
47.01% (G:11.33% B:0.38%)
52.99% (G:15.70% B:0.48%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
Unlimited Game
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--A-bBE---C-bB-bab-b--bBb-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 43

1.Rollout16/3 6/2eq: -0.179
Player:
Opponent:
46.14% (G:11.46% B:0.46%)
53.86% (G:15.36% B:0.58%)
Conf.: 0.006 (-0.185...-0.172) - [99.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
2.Rollout123/16* eq: -0.191 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
47.80% (G:13.69% B:0.68%)
52.20% (G:23.82% B:0.75%)
Conf.: 0.008 (-0.199...-0.183) - [0.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Here's a bonus position with a similar flavor. XG prefers the safe play but perhaps by a smaller margin than you might expect since bar/17* wins a lot more games.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
Unlimited Game
pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AB-a-D-C--AcB--ba-cbbA-aA:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout1Bar/22 6/1eq: -0.257
Player:
Opponent:
33.60% (G:9.03% B:0.18%)
66.40% (G:13.14% B:0.52%)
Conf.: 0.007 (-0.265...-0.250) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/17* eq: -0.290 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
37.82% (G:12.67% B:0.53%)
62.18% (G:29.81% B:2.26%)
Conf.: 0.009 (-0.299...-0.281) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 43 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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