I think that this decision is more delicate than most people think. XGR++ narrowly favors the hit at DMP, and if we shift Blue's blot to his 2pt then the two plays are very close.
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 133  Unlimited Game  pip: 145 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=AbBECbBbabbbBb:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10 
Blue to play 43 
1.  Rollout^{1}  6/3 6/2  eq: 0.139 
 Player: Opponent:  47.13% (G:11.81% B:0.47%) 52.87% (G:15.05% B:0.53%)  Conf.: ± 0.012 (0.151...0.127)  [100.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 56 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  23/16*  eq: 0.198 (0.058) 
 Player: Opponent:  47.73% (G:13.39% B:0.68%) 52.27% (G:23.97% B:0.75%)  Conf.: ± 0.016 (0.213...0.182)  [0.0%] Duration: 17 minutes 31 seconds 


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
DMP:
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 133  1 point match  pip: 145 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=AbBECbBbabbbBb:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:1:10 
Blue to play 43 
1.  XG Roller++  23/16*  eq: 0.040 
 Player: Opponent:  48.01% (G:13.13% B:0.60%) 51.99% (G:22.25% B:0.73%)  

2.  XG Roller++  6/3 6/2  eq: 0.060 (0.020) 
 Player: Opponent:  47.01% (G:11.33% B:0.38%) 52.99% (G:15.70% B:0.48%)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Variant:
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 133  Unlimited Game  pip: 144 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=AbBECbBbabbbBb:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10 
Blue to play 43 
1.  Rollout^{1}  6/3 6/2  eq: 0.179 
 Player: Opponent:  46.14% (G:11.46% B:0.46%) 53.86% (G:15.36% B:0.58%)  Conf.: ± 0.006 (0.185...0.172)  [99.2%] Duration: 1 hour 00 minute 

2.  Rollout^{1}  23/16*  eq: 0.191 (0.013) 
 Player: Opponent:  47.80% (G:13.69% B:0.68%) 52.20% (G:23.82% B:0.75%)  Conf.: ± 0.008 (0.199...0.183)  [0.8%] Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Here's a bonus position with a similar flavor. XG prefers the safe play but perhaps by a smaller margin than you might expect since bar/17* wins a lot more games.
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 123  Unlimited Game  pip: 137 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=ABaDCAcBbacbbAaA:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10 
Blue to play 53 
1.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/22 6/1  eq: 0.257 
 Player: Opponent:  33.60% (G:9.03% B:0.18%) 66.40% (G:13.14% B:0.52%)  Conf.: ± 0.007 (0.265...0.250)  [100.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 08 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/17*  eq: 0.290 (0.033) 
 Player: Opponent:  37.82% (G:12.67% B:0.53%) 62.18% (G:29.81% B:2.26%)  Conf.: ± 0.009 (0.299...0.281)  [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 43 seconds 


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10