I think that this decision is more delicate than most people think. XGR++ narrowly favors the hit at DMP, and if we shift Blue's blot to his 2pt then the two plays are very close.
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 133 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 145
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---AbBE---C-bB-bab-b--bBb-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/3 6/2 | eq: -0.139 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.13% (G:11.81% B:0.47%)
52.87% (G:15.05% B:0.53%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.151...-0.127) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 56 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/16* | eq: -0.198 (-0.058) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.73% (G:13.39% B:0.68%)
52.27% (G:23.97% B:0.75%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.213...-0.182) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
DMP:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 133 | | 1 point match | pip: 145
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---AbBE---C-bB-bab-b--bBb-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 23/16* | eq: -0.040 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.01% (G:13.13% B:0.60%)
51.99% (G:22.25% B:0.73%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 6/3 6/2 | eq: -0.060 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.01% (G:11.33% B:0.38%)
52.99% (G:15.70% B:0.48%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 133 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 144
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--A-bBE---C-bB-bab-b--bBb-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/3 6/2 | eq: -0.179 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.14% (G:11.46% B:0.46%)
53.86% (G:15.36% B:0.58%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.185...-0.172) - [99.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/16* | eq: -0.191 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.80% (G:13.69% B:0.68%)
52.20% (G:23.82% B:0.75%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.199...-0.183) - [0.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Here's a bonus position with a similar flavor. XG prefers the safe play but perhaps by a smaller margin than you might expect since bar/17* wins a lot more games.
   
 
    
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 123 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 137
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-AB-a-D-C--AcB--ba-cbbA-aA:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 6/1 | eq: -0.257 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.60% (G:9.03% B:0.18%)
66.40% (G:13.14% B:0.52%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.265...-0.250) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/17* | eq: -0.290 (-0.033) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.82% (G:12.67% B:0.53%)
62.18% (G:29.81% B:2.26%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.299...-0.281) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10