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What's best here and why? - ROLLOUT

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 22 April 2014, at 12:55 p.m.

In Response To: What's best here and why? (Timothy Chow)

The slot is sound, but not best. 3-ply analysis has a lot of these options very close (.01 or so) but a full rollout spreads them out a bit.

BTW, XGR++ says the cube would be TG by about .1





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 140
7 point match
pip: 100
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBB-BCCb-----Ab-b-bbBbaa--:0:0:1:21:4:2:0:7:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout113/12 6/4eq: +0.934
Player:
Opponent:		72.74% (G:49.15% B:0.52%)
27.26% (G:5.49% B:0.25%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.923...+0.946) - [98.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 45 seconds
2.Rollout113/12 5/3eq: +0.917 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		71.59% (G:53.06% B:0.79%)
28.41% (G:5.86% B:0.26%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.905...+0.929) - [2.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 10 seconds
3.Rollout16/3eq: +0.901 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		71.62% (G:54.20% B:0.72%)
28.38% (G:6.53% B:0.39%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.887...+0.914) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 53 seconds
4.Rollout113/11 5/4eq: +0.894 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		71.75% (G:47.55% B:0.50%)
28.25% (G:5.62% B:0.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.883...+0.905) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 47 seconds
5.Rollout113/10eq: +0.890 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:		71.69% (G:47.87% B:0.61%)
28.31% (G:5.56% B:0.24%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.878...+0.903) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 13 seconds
6.Rollout15/3 4/3eq: +0.879 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:		70.91% (G:52.55% B:0.62%)
29.09% (G:6.35% B:0.35%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.866...+0.892) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 54 seconds
7.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: +0.799 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:		69.90% (G:43.70% B:0.60%)
30.10% (G:6.09% B:0.27%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.786...+0.811) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 33 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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