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BGonline.org Forums
Fish MET calculation FWIW
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: 2a - 5a cube vs fish (Mislav Kovacic)
Date: Tuesday, 22 April 2014, at 5:20 p.m.
Using the table here for 100 Elo difference, the weaker player has 13.8% trailing 5a Crawford and 66.5% leading 2a Crawford, for a take point of about 21%. This is only slightly lower than for the standard MET so I don't think that much adjusting is called for, especially if (as you seem to be suggesting) both players are going to play this game out perfectly and what the bot thinks are market losers are going to be market losers in practice.
The other thing to think about is what you gain by waiting. If you think your opponent will throw away equity by mishandling the cube when the game turns around, then that would increase your incentive to hold the cube now. On the other hand, you'd better be pretty confident in your ability to assess the take/drop decision that you may face later. By doubling now, you avoid the possibility of making a take/drop error yourself.
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