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not really

Posted By: phil simborg
Date: Wednesday, 23 April 2014, at 12:43 p.m.

In Response To: not really (Maik Stiebler)

There is no statistical difference in the amount of luck a strong player might get over a weaker player. The luck is calculated based on how good or bad a roll is compared to the average roll at that moment, assuming the player makes the right play. If he makes the right play or wrong play affects the PR, but not the luck calculation.

One part of luck that I believe is impossible to measure is the luck of the difficulty of the play. I think that if you look at the PR's of particularly the top Giants, when one is higher it is often because he happens to get more tough rolls and more difficult cube decisions, but who is to say what is more or less difficult? It is a highly subjective subject.

Now, I could look at just about any position and come up with a roll or two that I think would be very hard to play, but someone else might find those very easy to play, and currently XG does not grade rolls or cube decisions on how difficult they are.

We all know that everyone's PR's are generally higher when playing and defending complicated back games and prime v prime games and containment games, and it's simply because those games are much harder to play properly than a racing game for example.

As to the comment about there being "no luck in backgammon" that is a quote from Tobias Hellwag in one of my interviews, and in the long run, I agree with that. I think it is a matter of semantics. If someone rolls 3 6-6's in a row, most of us think that is lucky, and Tobias is saying that is only part of the odds of the game that is going to happen from time to time.

Certainly, the biggest luck factor, in my opinion, is the luck of the draw.

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