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Rollout: Break anchor to hit? #7 (final problem in series)

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 26 April 2014, at 4:51 p.m.

In Response To: Break anchor to hit? #7 (final problem in series) (Timothy Chow)

Even more so than the previous problem, this problem dramatically illustrates how wrong it can be to break anchor to hit in a priming battle when you have a decent counter-priming option. Even if you didn't find 8/4 6/5, either 13/12 8/4 or 8/7 8/4 is still a lot better than 22/18* 4/3, even if you ignore gammon losses.

Kudos to Fatboy for having the courage to say publicly that he would have hit.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 112
Unlimited Game
pip: 134
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-a-BA-DBB----B--bcabccB---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.Rollout18/4 6/5eq: +0.043
Player:
Opponent:
51.97% (G:8.94% B:0.30%)
48.03% (G:14.21% B:0.48%)
Conf.: 0.012 (+0.031...+0.055) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 52 seconds
2.Rollout113/12 8/4eq: -0.140 (-0.183)
Player:
Opponent:
46.21% (G:8.12% B:0.26%)
53.79% (G:12.94% B:0.45%)
Conf.: 0.011 (-0.151...-0.130) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 11 seconds
3.Rollout18/7 8/4eq: -0.181 (-0.224)
Player:
Opponent:
44.69% (G:8.24% B:0.23%)
55.31% (G:11.02% B:0.38%)
Conf.: 0.013 (-0.194...-0.169) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 25 seconds
4.Rollout122/18* 4/3eq: -0.354 (-0.397)
Player:
Opponent:
41.77% (G:11.18% B:0.53%)
58.23% (G:24.20% B:0.97%)
Conf.: 0.012 (-0.366...-0.342) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 16 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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