Even more so than the previous problem, this problem dramatically illustrates how wrong it can be to break anchor to hit in a priming battle when you have a decent counter-priming option. Even if you didn't find 8/4 6/5, either 13/12 8/4 or 8/7 8/4 is still a lot better than 22/18* 4/3, even if you ignore gammon losses.
Kudos to Fatboy for having the courage to say publicly that he would have hit.
           
 
         
 | | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 112 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 134
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=-a-BA-DBB----B--bcabccB---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/4 6/5 | eq: +0.043 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.97% (G:8.94% B:0.30%)
48.03% (G:14.21% B:0.48%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.031...+0.055) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 52 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/12 8/4 | eq: -0.140 (-0.183) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.21% (G:8.12% B:0.26%)
53.79% (G:12.94% B:0.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.151...-0.130) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 11 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/7 8/4 | eq: -0.181 (-0.224) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.69% (G:8.24% B:0.23%)
55.31% (G:11.02% B:0.38%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.194...-0.169) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 22/18* 4/3 | eq: -0.354 (-0.397) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.77% (G:11.18% B:0.53%)
58.23% (G:24.20% B:0.97%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.366...-0.342) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10