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Estimate Win % - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 27 April 2014, at 6:48 a.m.

In Response To: Estimate Win % (Stick)

Bill Calton & Timothy seemed to nail this pretty well. I figured some people would be way off in their estimates always underestimating. Even with no board yet to speak of we still have good coverage. As someone recommended, you should definitely play this out to get a better feel for the checker play. I find the cubes pretty straightforward but think the bot in general cubes too late.

I also performed a higher level rollout, XGR+/4 ply with huge search space and the win % didn't differ.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 19
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 170
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=------E-C----D-----AA-afdA:1:1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.Rollout1Bar/22* 13/7eq: -0.146
Player:
Opponent:		48.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.30% (G:36.65% B:0.52%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.155...-0.138)
Duration: 11 minutes 56 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83312692
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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