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Double Match Point:Winning Chances ?

Posted By: Bill Calton
Date: Monday, 28 April 2014, at 3:38 a.m.

In Response To: Double Match Point:Winning Chances ? (Seth)

I almost never get these right. Pressing my luck by answering two in a row... "no whammies...stop."

I wonder how hard favorite (White) should push for the second man? After all, he will be a pretty big favorite to win anyway after closing out one man.

I'll guess underdog (blue) wins low 20%s, like 22%. Logic is you would be about 30% if closed out with six off and perfect spares (all on ace and deuce). Take away a few percent for being worse than that, on four point, and a few percent since you might get a second or third blot sent back.

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