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Difficult 1-1 **ROLLOUT**

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 28 April 2014, at 3:03 p.m.

In Response To: Difficult 1-1 **ROLLOUT** (Michael Depreli)

This is bizarre.

The top play is 24/23(2) 9/8 5/4. Why is this play so good (assuming it really is good)? Is it because 24/23(2) is so important? But the next five plays in the rollout don't involve 24/23(2); they switch points with 3/1*(2).

Perhaps it's the priming part of the play that's important, 9/8 5/4. To find another play involving 9/8 5/4, we have to scroll down to play #17, 10/8 9/8 5/4 (supposedly a 0.208 double whopper) or play #19, 9/8 9/7 5/4 (supposedly a 0.243 whopper with cheese) or play #23, 13/12 10/8 5/4 (supposedly 0.268 back).

Suppose we theorize that either 24/23(2) or 3/2*(2) is a viable plan, but that once you choose one or the other, you have to follow a consistent game plan with the remaining aces. After 24/23(2), suppose we pick 9/8 for the third ace. Then the allegedly second best choice for the fourth ace, 13/12, is 0.104 behind the first choice, 5/4. Other choices for the fourth aces, 9/8 and 10/9, are worse, 0.157 or 0.161 back.

Anyway, something seems fishy here. I can't come up with a plausible story for these numbers, even allowing for the variance. Note that if we simply discard the top play of the rollout, or push it down to #5 or so, then a more-or-less coherent story emerges. This makes me doubt whether 24/23(2) 9/8 5/4 really is best.

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