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Explain this XG result please

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 29 April 2014, at 3:18 p.m.

In Response To: Explain this XG result please (David Rockwell)

David and Xavier have said most of what I wanted to say, but I have a couple of extra comments I find GNU's temperature map easier to use than XG's dice distribution; from that, one can quickly see that the swing on 65 roughly compensates for the swing on 11 and 33. White's other 3's are better for Blue if Blue sits on the anchor, but they're already pretty good for Blue anyway, and they are counterbalanced by the better outfield coverage when White rolls a nondescript 5 or a 64. What makes the position so tough for a human to assess is that both sides have such strong boards, which amplifies the effect of a hit or even of a few extra shots.

Something else which has not been mentioned is the cube. I first thought that the reason Blue doesn't gain more from White's 3's by sitting on the anchor was that Blue just has to cash anyway, so it's overkill to make White's 3's worse. However, when I gave White the cube, truncated rollouts didn't indicate much of a difference. I found this rather surprising. At the same time, truncated rollouts don't indicate as much of a difference between the two plays as Bob's rollout does. So, I'd recommend that Bob try rolling out the position with White owning the cube to see if that makes any difference.

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