Some info from GNU's "View Statistics"
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Donkey Corner #10 - Rollouts + Analysis (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 29 April 2014, at 3:26 p.m.
In Response To: Donkey Corner #10 - Rollouts + Analysis (Stick)
I did a 1296-trial 2-ply rollout with GNU 1.0 and found that Blue wins an undoubled gammon about 23% of the time after 13/9(2). White manages to turn the cube to 2 just 17% of the time, usually when she's winning anyway. It was very rare for Blue to win at all with the cube on 2, or win a gammon with the cube on 4. In other words, the advantage doesn't switch back and forth very much in the rest of this game. When things go well for Blue, he just cruises home for the gammon, and rarely has to worry about a gammicidal cube interfering with his plans.
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