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OLM 20140429A The Dilly Builders

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 29 April 2014, at 10:16 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140429A The Dilly Builders (Jason Lee)

This type of position is a borderline drop/take for money so at this score it is a CLEAR take due to our enhanced recube vig compared to $$ play. In an early blitz position like this AtS (7a5a) our recube vig is typically enough to increase our take emg by about .15 to .20!

Why so much? Well it simply is the power of our recube when we turn this around, which we can often do. Our opps have two checkers back on their ace pt and can't do a heck of a lot with some large rolls. They have some dupe of their 1's and 2's and only 9 checkers in the zone. While our position looks and is bad, it often won't be tragic after the next sequence of rolls.

Our recube potential is very strong since our opps have two checkers far back and can lose at least 7% G's from here based on my recollection of reference pos. When we recube they will be contemplating taking an almost dead 4 cube and will be terrified of any match ending G's we can win.

TAKE

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