[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Advanced Backgammon #102 -- Rollout and Variants

Posted By: Igor
Date: Saturday, 3 May 2014, at 3:25 p.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #102 (Igor)

This is a huge pass due to gammon losses.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 104
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BBBC-B---a--a-AbbbdBbA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.14% (G:33.86% B:2.09%) 71.95% (G:33.86% B:2.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.86% (G:10.03% B:0.76%) 28.05% (G:9.80% B:0.75%)
Cubeless Equities +0.674 +1.384
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.898 (-0.102)±0.010 (+0.887..+0.908)
Redouble/Take:+1.194 (+0.194)±0.019 (+1.175..+1.213)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 43721024
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 57 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Take one white blot out of direct range and it becomes a take.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 106
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BBBC-B-a----a-AbbbdBbA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.46% (G:30.90% B:2.22%) 68.15% (G:31.89% B:2.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.54% (G:12.83% B:0.96%) 31.85% (G:12.99% B:1.08%)
Cubeless Equities +0.543 +1.125
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.763 (-0.158)±0.010 (+0.754..+0.773)
Redouble/Take:+0.922±0.020 (+0.901..+0.942)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.078)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 440280
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 52 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Shift blue 8pt to the 9pt out of direct contact with the 2pt and white can just squeeze out a take.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 104
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 145
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BBBC--B--a--a-AbbbdBbA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.38% (G:30.94% B:1.95%) 68.87% (G:31.76% B:2.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.62% (G:11.36% B:0.92%) 31.13% (G:11.51% B:1.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.574 +1.180
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.826 (-0.155)±0.006 (+0.820..+0.831)
Redouble/Take:+0.981±0.010 (+0.971..+0.991)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.019)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 440280
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 15 minutes 13 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Put one checker back on the 8pt and it becomes a small pass.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 104
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BBBC-AA--a--a-AbbbdBbA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.12% (G:32.01% B:1.95%) 69.83% (G:33.05% B:2.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.88% (G:11.04% B:0.95%) 30.17% (G:11.45% B:1.16%)
Cubeless Equities +0.602 +1.243
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.839 (-0.161)±0.011 (+0.828..+0.849)
Redouble/Take:+1.044 (+0.044)±0.020 (+1.024..+1.064)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 440280
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 40 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Finally, a variant courtesy of Robert Chow. (The other ones are clear based on the initial rollout.)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 104
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 145
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BBBC-B---a--a-AbbbdAbB-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.19% (G:27.40% B:1.73%) 62.59% (G:28.25% B:1.71%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.81% (G:12.62% B:1.21%) 37.41% (G:12.42% B:1.16%)
Cubeless Equities +0.397 +0.831
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.659±0.013 (+0.646..+0.672)
Redouble/Take:+0.572 (-0.087)±0.023 (+0.548..+0.595)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.341)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 440280
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 11 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.