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BGonline.org Forums
Advanced Backgammon #103
Posted By: Robert Chow In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #103 (Igor)
Date: Monday, 5 May 2014, at 9:15 p.m.
The take looks clear because White's strong four-prime will make it difficult for Blue to get his back checkers going while trying to keep White on the bar. If Blue hits loose and gets re-hit, he is in big trouble as his attack stalls besides having more checkers to escape. On the next sequence, I am not sure what represents market loss. For example, Blue rolls 33:6/3(2), 13/7 and White rolls a 4, entering one checker on the 21 point. Assuming Blue did not double, is this now market loss? My point is that regardless of what Blue's next roll is, White is far from dead if he just enters with one checker. Also, Blue's 66 is a very awkward roll. Unless he rolls a 1 or 2 soon, Blue will have more anti-jokers in his large numbers.
Having said the above, I would still double as certain sequences do represent market loss (not sure how large) when White stays out with both checkers and a lot of Blue's wins would be gammons. Even if the double is slightly unsound, it is a correct semi-bluff against a typical opponent. Against some "calling stations", I might even wait.
Variants: 1) Move one checker from the Blue's 24 point to the 22 point. 2) Shift Blue's 24 point to the 23 point.
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