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Advanced Backgammon #117
Posted By: David Presser
Date: Thursday, 8 May 2014, at 9:23 p.m.
In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #117 (Igor)
This is a classic one roll action cube. If you hit you are in the gin zone (unless you play against Ray...) and with a good dice you can win a gammon. If you miss your opponent doubles you out anyway. So it should be a clear double and take.
Taking it a step further and trying to generalize, I worked on such action doubles with 2 exposed checkers and derived that in similar positions, I need a minimum of 20 hitting numbers to double.
I also explored the case for a redouble and I recall that I need a minimum of 22 hitting numbers for a redouble, i.e. send an action redouble if I have over 60%.
The 20 and 22 hitting numbers serve as my BE reference for initial double and redouble BE. This isn't bullet proof but it gives me a good ballpark.
Having said that note that this doesn't apply if the opponent is TG after a miss. In such a case the math isn't so simple and it should be treated as a case by case basis. To illustrate this caveat, If you move a blue checker from the 16 to the 19 such that 20 numbers hit (1s and 2), I would not double because my opponent is TG after a miss.

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