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BGonline.org Forums
Too good, too good, too good, oops!
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Too good, too good, too good, oops! (David Levy)
Date: Monday, 12 May 2014, at 3:07 p.m.
White can't close Blue out or even make a five-point board. There's no chance of hitting a second Blue checker. For her to win, White has to hope to hit Blue enough to catch up in the race. So as long as Blue has enough of a racing advantage, he can cash. And as long as he can cash next turn, he can play on even if his gammon chances are low.
I don't know how to estimate the winning chances here accurately; I'm guessing that the hitting possibilities on both sides roughly cancel out so that its close to being a straight race, but I don't really know. With that in mind, it looks to me that Blue has a cash in the first position. White has to make up 28 pips in the race, which is a lot. In practice I tend to cash these positions early just because there aren't that many gammons to be had, and it's more annoying to me to get dinged for a series of missed cashes (or even to lose the game) than to get dinged once for cashing when too good. However, probably the first position is still technically TG. I think the second position is also a cash and obviously it's less likely to be TG.
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