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BGonline.org Forums
White to play 63
Posted By: HOMINID In Response To: White to play 63 (John O'Hagan)
Date: Wednesday, 14 May 2014, at 1:31 p.m.
My knee-jerk play is 24/21 8/2* but this is analyst mode and I have time to think. Whites big problem here is his lone runner. I find it helps to play one dice first and then the other dice first. Sometimes this helps clarify the position. A good time to remind oneself that BG is a game of dice roll odds. It was great to see Falafel commentating at London roll them off his tongue, cube decision made. One cannot fail to notice that if whites blots are left unattended they are under a serious threat. The value of the threat is very easy to calculate at 44%. If one plays 24/15 the resulting blot is under threat also, to the tune of 34%. This is a grand total 78%. Playing 8/2 the re-entry hit is worth 46% . If hit you will have the chance of a high anchor but who knows it may be your lucky day should brown dance but there is only a 25% chance of that. Playing anything else is not wise as per the roll odds. I intend to post the easy method to calculate roll odds in your head OTB.
I am aware that it is blasphemy to dare and imply that any thing can be easy in backgammon and I may well be hounded out of the forum. The sun is shining,going fishing. I will be back.lol
No nit picking please this is rough arithmetic good enough for BG.
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