Advanced Backgammon #120

I’m a Taker!

With Blue dancing 25% of the time, my first thought was that is probably a take. Then I saw that even if Blue hits, he may not cover, and my intuition was reinforced.

Against that is the chance that White might not move again. Blue can hit and cover with 8 numbers. After that, Blue is winning a ton of gammons. With 1 White checker closed out, perhaps as many as 60%. Blue has 16 other numbers that hit without covering. 44% of those will have White fanning, so White will lose many gammons there as well.

As things stand, however, Blue still has a lot of work to do before he can complete a closeout. Right now, he does not even have enough checkers in the zone for that. Oh, yes, he is also on the bar.

With medium to low confidence in this very volatile position, my guess is double/take.

Btw, when there are so few respondents to a tough problem like this, it often means folks just are not sure. Like me, their confidence is—at best—only medium.

Mike

Post Response

Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:
If necessary, enter your password below:
Password: