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21$-62S-64P-55B-64H-51H-44 — No Jacoby, No Beavers — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 21 May 2014, at 7:18 p.m.

In Response To: 21$-62S-64P-55B-64H-51H-44 (Nack Ballard)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
Unlimited Game
pip: 174
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---aDBC---cC-a-d-e----BA:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 44

1.Rollout1Bar/21 13/5* 5/1* eq: +0.1351
Player:
Opponent:
52.60% (G:18.40% B:0.75%)
47.40% (G:13.81% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ±0.0034 (+0.1317...+0.1384) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 56 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 24/20(2) 13/9eq: +0.1210 (-0.0140)
Player:
Opponent:
52.69% (G:12.54% B:0.57%)
47.31% (G:9.95% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ±0.0030 (+0.1180...+0.1240) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 06 minutes
 
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25129244
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2014-May-19
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
21$-62S-64P-55B-64H-51H-44-n-tm.xgp
n[K S14] "<=31
n[K S18 F̲59] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

21$-62S-64P-55B-64H-51H-44 — Unlimited Games
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply 807195572 +129 [K S6 F47] /46*3 Stick
Snowie 4.7.1 3-ply, Cubeful (not Live Cube) [Random seed] +119 [K E1] ~5 Stick
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 51018713 +135 j[K S7] "<=5 Stick
GnuBg 1.02 2-ply 735769951 +124.005 n[K S6 F56] '/0.360t Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 25129244 +135.1 n[K S14] "<=31 Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval [XGR++ seed] +130.2 n[K S18 F59] "&e Taper_Mike

Key: F = Field [bar/21, 24/20, 13/5*, K = Kill [bar/21, 13/5*/1*, S = Split [bar/21, 24/20(2), 13/9

Nactation Tutorial • Explanation of nacbracs • Nacbracs for cube actions

In the rollout above, the margin between K and S has expanded to 0.014. I am not sure if that is because the Jacoby Rule is not being used, or whether it reflects a real assessment of the moves. If the difference were known to be 0.014, many would probably shy away from S.

Note also that Stick’s XG rollout only reached 89.6% confidence that K was the best play. The margin it estimates, 0.007, should therefore be taken with a grain of salt.

Mike

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