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RO & comments

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 22 May 2014, at 4:10 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

The take is 100% clear so the only question is whether or not to double. It looks like a good cube if you're way behind in the score but how about 5a-3a? The 2-cube gv's favor the trailer ATS by ~73%/46% and the leader's cube vig is less than normal given 1)the trailer's 16% 4-cube tp and 2)about 20% of the leaders wins are g's which are meaningless if he recubes.

D3 is a super joker and any hit/fan sequence looks like a clear mkt loser. D5 is a good miss and you will have a reasonable bar point holding game after your other non-hitters.

The above factors are enough to make not cubing a blunder ATS, a blunder which I made the other day against XG.

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 92
5 point match
pip: 101
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-ABCBB-A--a-bB-a-bB-abbbb-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 54.88% (G:19.30% B:0.39%) 54.85% (G:19.75% B:0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 45.12% (G:9.01% B:0.57%) 45.15% (G:9.23% B:0.34%)
Cubeless Equities +0.149 +0.455
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.181 (-0.129)±0.008 (+0.173..+0.189)
Double/Take:+0.310±0.011 (+0.299..+0.321)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.690)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 59 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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