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OLM 20140522A The Dilly Builders -- Consultation

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Thursday, 22 May 2014, at 6:19 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140522A The Dilly Builders -- Consultation (Jason Lee)

OK we play 7/3 to cover and then 13/5 and need to compare three close choices for the final 4.

1) I don't under 8/4 breaking the 8 pt. It does create a builder for the 2 pt, but we can slot the 2 pt with 6/2 and cover it with 28 of our next rolls. Thus either 6/2 or 9/5 seems to be a bit better than 8/4.

2) We are only hitting our opps 8/1296 of the time next roll so we can afford to slot 6/2. We can cover with 28 of our next rolls and then we are really ready to win if a shot comes up and we hit it.

3) 9/5 might lose a small fraction fewer G's but I think at the cost of some wins and I prefer to play to win. After 9/5 we either will slot our 2 pt anyhow or try to run a checker and play fewer pips in our home board. Running a checker leaves us vulnerable to jokers, ending all winning chances and sometimes still resulting in a G, whereas stacking up more checkers on the 6 and 5 pts to "save" a couple of pips, will make it a bit harder to win after we hit.

I still play 13/5 7/3 6/2

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