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one of my big blunders this weekend

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 27 May 2014, at 11:15 p.m.

In Response To: one of my big blunders this weekend (Keene)

I like your approach, though I'd break the numbers down slightly differently.

55 and 66 are gin and I'd guess win a gammon 75% of the time.

Eight other rolls hit and leave an indirect shot in return; I'd chalk up 7/8 wins. Again let's say that 75% of these wins are gammons.

64 63 54 leave a direct shot in return. Say 4/6 wins, not quite as high a gammon percentage but maybe 65%?

For the other rolls, 7% wins seems a bit low for the slime vig. I'd guess higher, maybe 15%? So 3/20 wins. I'm coming up with 16/36 wins, and about 11 out of those 16 are gammons. These are pretty close to your figures, but broken down a little differently.

When the cube comes back, it's effectively gammicidal, but I don't think that that many gammons are killed since most of the gammons come from an immediate disengagement.

So the take is clear but it would seem to be a technical ND. If it causes your opponent to burn 10 minutes on the clock then that may justify the double in practice.

When Petko says that one should not pay attention to XG, I wonder if that means that practical considerations override the bot verdict here, or whether he thinks that XG's containment play is so poor that its win/gammon estimates (and/or cube action) are very far off?

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