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OTB & RO

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 5 June 2014, at 1:21 a.m.

In Response To: OTB & RO (Bob Koca)

O.K., suppose I know that my opponent is going to take. What do I lose by waiting? I risk rolling well and having my opponent drop, leaving me with 96.6% match winning chances (or whatever, depending on the MET) instead of whatever match-winning chances I would have with the good roll and the cube on 4. I'm just not sure that this points to a clear double. For a start, if my opponent is sure to take now then she might take next turn as well. Also, you wrote:

Making more errors than opponent to change 16.5% to enough more than 19% to make the cube incorrect is a lot of error.

No, the difference between 16.5% and 19% is what it would take to make the take correct, not to make the cube incorrect. The take could be wrong but the cube could still be wrong even if you know that you're going to get a take.

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